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AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/16/22

For the week ending on 3/16/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (49.8%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (22.5%; low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (27.8%; below average). The overall Sentiment became more bearish. In the news filled Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), the disastrous & grinding Russia-Ukraine war dragged on for the 3rd week although there were some indications of progress in talks; the Fed started the 2nd leg of its triple-action plan by raising the fed fund rate by 25 bps or 0.25% (1st - the QE-Taper ended, 2nd - the rate hikes started, 3rd - the Fed balance sheet reduction to come soon); there was also news that some issues related to the US-listings of Chinese stocks/ADRs (using the complicated VIE mechanism) may be resolved (& Asian & EM stocks had astounding jumps); the general stock market action was a decline early & a strong rebound later, and huge declines (reversals?) in commodities after huge run ups in the previous week (commodities are very volatile). https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/539/thread

Comments

  • Hi Yogi. Thanks for the post. I know this is a very popular survey. How do people generally use the data? Is it, 'this group is bearish so we should be bearish' or 'this group is bearish so we should be contrarian'. I've always wondered that actually. What is your take?
  • @MikeM, sentiment indicators are contrarian and work well when at extremes. So, one should act in an opposite way. But one shouldn't rely on any one indicator.

    This week's Survey didn't break any records but is extremely bearish. This means that courageous with cash may buy some and others may just hold on tight. Certainly, it is not time to sell when the Sentiment is so bearish. We have already seen some huge moves in depressed stocks and Asian and EM markets in the last couple of days.

    Of course, the post also includes my weekly commentary. The AAII releases the survey data on Thursday mornings but issues commentaries only in the evenings. If there are some unusual comments by the AAII, I add them later by Edit or Reply.

    The post link provided has more data and the Survey results for past several weeks/months.
  • edited March 17
    Thanks. Interesting that two consecutive days of good market gains and bearish sentiment got worse for the week.
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