Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

Tough Day in Bond Land

edited March 14 in Fund Discussions
PMZIX -6 cents
DODIX -11 cents
CLMAX -6 cents
PIMIX -4 cents
OSTIX -7 cents
PDIIX -7 cents
MWIGX -7 cents
MWFEX -5 cents
BHK -12 cents
DMO -29 cents

Better ...

RCTIX -1 cent
CBLDX -1 cent
DLDFX -2 cents
SEMMX -1 cent
ICMUX -1 cent
ZEOIX -3 cents
DHEAX -2 cents
RHHIX -1 cent

But, look here:

IOFIX even
DPFNX even
BDKAX even
«1

Comments

  • Yes.
    PTIAX -.16 cents
    PRFRX -.04
    PRSNX -.06
    RPSIX -.07
    TUHYX -.08
    CEMB -.19
    EMB -.20
    EDD -.07
    PREMX -.04
    FNMIX -.04
    AGEPX +.02. surprise. Frontier Mkt. bonds.






  • @Crash. Good to see something positive!

    Otherwise, today continued retraction wide spread.

    AGG -1.0%
    BOND -0.7%
    TLT -2.3%
    HYG -1.2%
    JNK -1.1%


  • edited March 15
    Love this image from this month's commentary ...

    image
  • Even sedate SQIFX down .01 . I've sold all my bond funds-even lost 2.5% on my small foray into VCIT recently !
  • carew388 said:

    Even sedate SQIFX down .01 . I've sold all my bond funds-even lost 2.5% on my small foray into VCIT recently !

    @carew388
    In what direction did you throw that money, if I may ask? Or are you growing cash?
  • We'll find out today if this is due to a more hawkish FED. 50 basis points instead of 25 maybe?

    Barrons this morning:
    ...Either way investors now expect the Fed to be more hawkish.

    Another inflation reading, February’s producer-price index due Tuesday, could add weight to that theory. Producer prices are expected to rise 10% year-over-year up from 9.7% in January.

    The Fed meets later today ahead of its eagerly anticipated decision Wednesday, when it is expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points. But the Fed’s forward guidance around rate hikes and Chair Jerome Powell’s tone will be the main event.

    If Fed officials share the markets’ view, they could even spring a hawkish surprise with their guidance.
  • edited March 15
    A Fed surprise is the last thing that the market would want at this time of a geopolitical event. I think a baby 25-bps hike will do for now with 50-bps shocker left in the reserve for later. But that is just my guess. At one time, I thought the Fed may start with 50-bps bang, but not now. The language and tone of the FOMC Statement would be important.

    BTW, for "tough day/time", look at some bond CEFs.
  • The FED should have started rate hikes at the end of last year, if not sooner. We would be in a better inflationary position to accept a .25% hike now - or none at all this time around. I believe history will show Powell F'ed up pretty bad with his view on inflation. Transitory inflation??? WTF. Even I didn't believe that and I'm as ignorant as can be on the topic.
  • Do you think ZIRP hurts retirees? Does anyone know if that is even a consideration?

    Things look better today!
  • For retirees who depend on bond yield, this is not a friendly environment.

    Today the yield on 2 and 10 year treasuries went down a bit today after the 10 Y went over 2.0% on Monday.

    Fed meets on Wednesday, March 16th and will decide to hike the rate 0.25% or 0.50%.
  • edited March 15
    Overnight the 10 year touched 2.14% . Stunned me a bit seeing it on the Bloomberg screen.
    High by recent standards.


    +1 @Charles Thanks for reposting that photo. The 3 riders: “Stocks”, “Bonds” and “Commodities”.
  • Crash I'm throwing all my bond fund proceeds into cash until I can figure out where to invest it !
  • Should be grateful that you don’t own Russian bonds today. They have been a whole lot more than few pennies per share.
  • edited March 15
    Does anyone here buy individual corporate bonds or TBills?

    I know you can do latter through TreasuryDirect, as well as broker.

    Examples:

    Dish, B- (hmmm), 1 year, 5%
    Ford, BB+, 1 year, callable (lol), 3.7%
    Alibaba, A+, 1 year, 3%
    US TBill, 1 year, 1.5%
  • @Charles- You might want to talk to johnN. He's been an enthusiastic buyer of individual bonds for many years.

    OJ
  • Thank you OJ!

    @JohnN - Thoughts?
  • edited March 15
    @Charles, I used to buy T-Bills when rates were higher. Elsewhere, I had a thread on their upcoming new issue dates.
    https://community.morningstar.com/s/feed/0D53o00005E8ZAtCAN
  • Usually the best time to buy any asset is when there is blood in the streets. Will it be different this time for bonds, perhaps, but I'm not investing based on that. Unless there is hyperinflation, possible but doubtful IMO based on demographics (there will come a time when yield-starved investors start looking at government paper and say wow, why do I need risky stocks). Then, those who dumped their bonds in this panic will say $hit, it was so obvious. As Yogi said, making predictions is hard, especially about the future (or something like that). Things could easily get worse before they get better, but I'm not dumping, I'm buying more opportunistically.
  • See anything strange here?

    image
  • how does one go about buying the 2-yr treasury bonds? By the time we go to buy, they probably go down 10 bps in yield but still will be better than any CDs.
  • edited March 17
    The yields among 3, 4, 5, and 10 year treasuries are flattening. Will watch if this tread continues.

    Will yield curve flattening follow by “inversion” ?
  • oh, dear. trouble in River City.
  • BaluBalu said:

    how does one go about buying the 2-yr treasury bonds? By the time we go to buy, they probably go down 10 bps in yield but still will be better than any CDs.

    I'm just buying VGSH, good enough for me.
  • BaluBalu said:

    how does one go about buying the 2-yr treasury bonds? By the time we go to buy, they probably go down 10 bps in yield but still will be better than any CDs.

    Treasury securities can be bought at new-issue at Treasury Direct & major brokerages (Fidelity, Schwab, etc; commission-free). Treasury publishes general schedules well ahead and makes specific announcements a few days before the new issue. They can also be bought in the secondary market at brokerages.
  • The Fed lag is a bit hard to look past (chart per Wolfstreet), with CPI now at 7.9%.

    image

  • edited March 17
    JD_co said:

    The Fed lag is a bit hard to look past … with CPI now at 7.9%.

    “I daresay you haven’t had much practice. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

    The Queen, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland - Lewis Carroll


    image

    Gives you an idea how long we’ve been (or had been) in this Alice in Wonderland bond bull market. In Paul Volcker’s day it was acceptable for public officials to use tobacco products openly.
  • Charles said:

    @yogibearbull. Thank you!

    +1

Sign In or Register to comment.