“It was a lot more fun to be in your 20s in the ’70s than to be in your 70s in the ’20s. Not that I would know personally (yet), but this wry baby boomer lament, making its rounds on the internet, hits uncomfortably close to home. I don't actually associate the 1970s with fun, but rather prices running ahead of my paycheck, of queuing in gasoline lines on odd or even days, of not having enough cash for the items in my shopping cart, and of living in Brooklyn because it was cheap long before it was chic.”
Forsyth’s general tone is that various economic indicators are signaling an approaching recession. He also sees many parallels between today and the inflationary 70s.
Here’s a bit more substance …
“By the calculations of J.P. Morgan's global quantitative and derivatives team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the U.S. equity market has priced in a recession probability of 50%, while the investment-grade bond market has discounted a 43% probability of a recession. The high-yield (aka junk) bond market has priced a relatively small 17% probability of recession.”
“Up & Down Wall Street: Two Headed Monster - Recession Rumbles Get Louder as Impact Of Stimulus Fades” - by Randall W. Forsyth - Barron’s March14, 2022