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Posted: MFO Ratings Thru November and Flows Thru 6 December
We're about 6 days late, unfortunately. My apologies!
We've converted all of our programs to shared functions, which will ultimately enable faster updates, while helping to ensure accurate calculations. It will even enable expansion of tools.
But, first time out has been slow because of all the conversation and checking.
Tomorrow, should post update using 10 February data drop. The one that just went live used the 3 February drop. Except for Month To Date (MTD) metrics, should be close.
If you see anything amiss or just want to chat, please drop me a line.
All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium site through February. Tools include MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, Dashboard of Launch Alerts, Portfolios, Quick Search, Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analytics, including Charts, Compare, Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.
All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium site through March. Tools include MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, Dashboard of Launch Alerts, Portfolios, Quick Search, Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analytics, including Charts, Compare, Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.
Since Friday was last day of month, Lipper's Saturday morning data drop enables us to get early view. Usually, a few funds are dropped because their monthly performance numbers get delayed. But, should be close for 1st quarter review.
Beginning soon, updates will be each weekend, reflecting performance through Friday ... for most funds anyway.
In the screener, the 'Alpha Rating' selection under the Alpha Beta metrics section is not working. On selection of value 4 - 5: Above Average, the result page displays
Alpha Beta Metrics • Alpha Rating (In Type):
Also any selection on this filter produces no results in the output.
Thanks stayCalm! Good catch. The variable name for Alpha Ratings was updated recently for consistency, which messed-up the search. I've added a month to your subscription for the hassle and the feedback. If you see anything else, or have suggestions for improvement, please reach back. Below is result using the Alpha Rating along with couple others ...
All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium site through March using Lipper's 14 April datadrop. Tools include MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, Dashboard of Launch Alerts, Portfolios, Quick Search, Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analytics, including Charts, Compare, Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.
In early morning hours, we updated the MFO Premium site through March using Lipper's 28 April datadrop. Should be able to use same datadrop to compute performance through April. Will post when live.
Posted April ratings update from last Friday's 5 May data drop. You will also find two new display periods: Month-To-Date (MTD) and Weeks-To-Date (WTD), essentially YTD plus MTD, for return and drawdown metrics, APR and MAXDD, making them current as of data drop date, typically last Friday.
All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium site through May using Lipper's 2 June datadrop. Tools include MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, Dashboard of Launch Alerts, Portfolios, Quick Search, Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analytics, including Charts, Compare, Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.
The S&P 500 has been generally climbing since October or 8 months ago. Month ending data only has us still 2% shy of new bull market. But if you include MTD, the S&P is up 21%. Yay!
@Charles, if the breath of the S&P 500 rally is more broad-based, I would be cheering with you. It is only a handful of large tech stock and AI stocks are advancing, the remaining stocks are flat. So I am concern.
@yogibearbull, On Friday, the market broadened to other non-tech stocks as reflected in DJIA. If I look at equal weighted S&P500 (RSP) versus market-weight SPY for this year, they tell a very different story. I hope the breath will broaden post debt-limit.
Granted. Value has lagged. Yes, NASDAQ is up 30%. Europe (STOXX 50) up 40%. Germany (DAX). And BRKA is up more than 20%. So is Japan (Nikkei). Rest of World (ACIXUS).
I just find it remarkable. Despite the skepticism. Russian invasion. China US tension. Rising rates. Bank collapses. Default fears. But here we are.
The Great Normalization (TGN) Bear lasted just 9 months, inflicting drawdown pain of -24% last September. The S&P is still underwater, by about 8%, so I admit ... will feel better after we clear that hurdle.
"U.S. stocks rose Thursday, ending the S&P 500’s longest bear market since the 1940s and marking the start of a new bull run."
That caught me a bit by surprise. Will update this table in July and see if I can understand where that statement is coming from ... I think the GFC bear lasted pretty long ... sure felt that way.
TRADER. Stocks rose as the wall of worry faded away. The RALLY broadened beyond large-caps to small/mid-caps and cyclicals (financials, industrials). The SP500 was in a bear market for 248 days (Edit - the longest since 1948) and it may reach a new high that is +10% away. Of course, there are economic data, the FOMC meeting(s), and a possible recession along the way. Enjoy the rally while it lasts. https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-gains-as-wall-of-worry-crumbles-what-happens-next-75e1dc1e?mod=past_editions
You may be thinking of the time it took for the SP500 to recover fully, and that was about 5 years after the GFC; however, the allocation funds recovered much faster.
Posted May inter-month ratings update from last Friday's 11 June data drop ... it actually drops Saturday morning, but is labelled with date of last performance update. The update includes David's latest profile(s) on Leuthold long funds. See Profiles.
TRADER. Stocks rose as the wall of worry faded away. The RALLY broadened beyond large-caps to small/mid-caps and cyclicals (financials, industrials). The SP500 was in a bear market for 248 days (Edit - the longest since 1948) and it may reach a new high that is +10% away. Of course, there are economic data, the FOMC meeting(s), and a possible recession along the way. Enjoy the rally while it lasts. https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-gains-as-wall-of-worry-crumbles-what-happens-next-75e1dc1e?mod=past_editions
You may be thinking of the time it took for the SP500 to recover fully, and that was about 5 years after the GFC; however, the allocation funds recovered much faster.
What am I missing here? The 2008/09 bear market, the 73/74 bear market were much longer and deeper than the one in 2022. And what about 2000-02?
This time, -20% down for SP500 from Jan 2022 high was in June 2022. Then, +20% up from Oct 2022 low was recent. That 284 days.
Other times have to be checked similarly. It's hard to do this on phone, so I may post on this later. In long & deep bear market of early-1970s, there may have been false signals too.
Finally had chance to review the "longest bear market since the 1940s" statement in NYT and Barron's. Had several of us questioning.
I believe this declaration works if what's being measured is the time between the minimum level of bear market (trough ... greatest drawdown from previous peak) to time it takes to grow 20% from that minimum.
Using month ending (not daily) returns, it took 9 months ... from October 2022 to June 2023 to accomplish. With the Tech Bubble, it took slightly less at 8 months. With Post WWII cycle in 1940's, it took 23 months.
So, interesting, but not really indicative of pain we all feel during a bear market. For example, in 1930's it only took 2 months for S&P to gain 20% over its abyss of -83% in May 1932 ... but the bear market, measured from last peak to tough took 33 months ... and then another 151 months or 12.5 years to get back above water.
Certainly not how we measure length of bear market, which is time from previous peak to trough.
Perhaps a better definition would be time enters bear territory (down 20% from previous peak) to time in climbs 20% above trough.
In any case, the bull and bear cycle declarations are only known in retrospect, ex post.
I also think they become more credible historical markers if each cycle results in a new all-time high. We need another June-like gain for that to happen with the current cycle ... The Great Normalization.
Fingers-crossed!
Plan to include updated cycles' table in David's July Commentary.
Comments
We've converted all of our programs to shared functions, which will ultimately enable faster updates, while helping to ensure accurate calculations. It will even enable expansion of tools.
But, first time out has been slow because of all the conversation and checking.
Tomorrow, should post update using 10 February data drop. The one that just went live used the 3 February drop. Except for Month To Date (MTD) metrics, should be close.
If you see anything amiss or just want to chat, please drop me a line.
Since Friday was last day of month, Lipper's Saturday morning data drop enables us to get early view. Usually, a few funds are dropped because their monthly performance numbers get delayed. But, should be close for 1st quarter review.
Beginning soon, updates will be each weekend, reflecting performance through Friday ... for most funds anyway.
In the screener, the 'Alpha Rating' selection under the Alpha Beta metrics section is not working. On selection of value 4 - 5: Above Average, the result page displays
Alpha Beta Metrics
• Alpha Rating (In Type):
Also any selection on this filter produces no results in the output.
I can send you screenshots.
Thanks
PS. March was a good month for BRKA ... up 8%!
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p31929595409
On Friday, the market broadened to other non-tech stocks as reflected in DJIA. If I look at equal weighted S&P500 (RSP) versus market-weight SPY for this year, they tell a very different story. I hope the breath will broaden post debt-limit.
I just find it remarkable. Despite the skepticism. Russian invasion. China US tension. Rising rates. Bank collapses. Default fears. But here we are.
The Great Normalization (TGN) Bear lasted just 9 months, inflicting drawdown pain of -24% last September. The S&P is still underwater, by about 8%, so I admit ... will feel better after we clear that hurdle.
June Bloom: Welcome a New Bull Market
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-06-08-2023-ef63fc60?st=6qf1dz2migdmgme&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
"U.S. stocks rose Thursday, ending the S&P 500’s longest bear market since the 1940s and marking the start of a new bull run."
That caught me a bit by surprise. Will update this table in July and see if I can understand where that statement is coming from ... I think the GFC bear lasted pretty long ... sure felt that way.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2022/07/the-great-normalization/
TRADER. Stocks rose as the wall of worry faded away. The RALLY broadened beyond large-caps to small/mid-caps and cyclicals (financials, industrials). The SP500 was in a bear market for 248 days (Edit - the longest since 1948) and it may reach a new high that is +10% away. Of course, there are economic data, the FOMC meeting(s), and a possible recession along the way. Enjoy the rally while it lasts.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-gains-as-wall-of-worry-crumbles-what-happens-next-75e1dc1e?mod=past_editions
You may be thinking of the time it took for the SP500 to recover fully, and that was about 5 years after the GFC; however, the allocation funds recovered much faster.
Other times have to be checked similarly. It's hard to do this on phone, so I may post on this later. In long & deep bear market of early-1970s, there may have been false signals too.
@yogibearbull.
@Junkster.
Finally had chance to review the "longest bear market since the 1940s" statement in NYT and Barron's. Had several of us questioning.
I believe this declaration works if what's being measured is the time between the minimum level of bear market (trough ... greatest drawdown from previous peak) to time it takes to grow 20% from that minimum.
Using month ending (not daily) returns, it took 9 months ... from October 2022 to June 2023 to accomplish. With the Tech Bubble, it took slightly less at 8 months. With Post WWII cycle in 1940's, it took 23 months.
So, interesting, but not really indicative of pain we all feel during a bear market. For example, in 1930's it only took 2 months for S&P to gain 20% over its abyss of -83% in May 1932 ... but the bear market, measured from last peak to tough took 33 months ... and then another 151 months or 12.5 years to get back above water.
Certainly not how we measure length of bear market, which is time from previous peak to trough.
Perhaps a better definition would be time enters bear territory (down 20% from previous peak) to time in climbs 20% above trough.
In any case, the bull and bear cycle declarations are only known in retrospect, ex post.
I also think they become more credible historical markers if each cycle results in a new all-time high. We need another June-like gain for that to happen with the current cycle ... The Great Normalization.
Fingers-crossed!
Plan to include updated cycles' table in David's July Commentary.