ECRI's recession call

Investor

I am not sure if you are aware that in 2011 Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) made a call that a recession had started. When they announced it in 2011 it made some buzz and now rather falled off the agenda or interest of press. In mid-2012 they renewed their recession call and the ECRI's Chief Operating Officer and spokesman, Lakshman Achuthan was again making rounds claiming the same recently but twisting claims trying to fit it what has actually happened somewhat.

However, the problem with their call is that data did not confirm their calls and still does not confirm. A number of economists have been replicating the ECRI indices and analyzing the call. I've included two links with extensive discussion. It looks like they made a mistake, possibly politically biased, but cannot get to admit it.

http://advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/dshort_030813.php
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2013/03/ecri-and-stock-market-i-report-you.html

Once respectable organization, ECRI, has lost a lot of credibility as a result.

Sven

I agree that ECRI missed their call for 2 years in a row. One would think they continue to refine their model to validate the market data if they want to retain their creditability. Otherwise they will go down the same road as Barron roudtable prediction, virtually useless.