Counter Cyclical Indexing

bee

The biggest challenge for any investor involves aligning their tolerance for risk with the cyclical nature of the markets. Too many investors fail to balance their actual perception of risk with the way that the business cycle evolves as relative asset class risks change. A Counter-cyclical Indexing strategy can help us be er align the way investors perceive risk with the way we actually manage portfolios.

Interesting approach to managing risk assets as their relative risk changes with the business cycle:

Countercyclical-Indexing.pdf

bee

Interview with Jeffery Gundlach:
Nov 2020





The Value of Investing Mistakes
Time Horizon
Concentrated Bets
Risk Management
Beta Trades are rare and requires raising funds for such situations
His outlook for the next 18 months ahead from Nov 2020:
-US Stocks are in the late stage of the momentum trade
-PRPFX looks like a good option right now... since Nov 2020 its up 14%

hank

Thanks @bee for this and all the great interviews you continuously dig up and share.

Haven’t followed Mr. G lately. He was a pretty “hot” fund manager a few years ago. Sounds to me like he’s just “biding his time” waiting for an opportunity to pounce (investment wise) on the next big opportunity to come along.

Sounds all the alarm bells (mostly the conservative line): High debt, market overvaluation, dismally low interest rates, “elitists” running the country, welfare state, no place to hide and a “Fed” that’s acting irresponsibly - possibly illegally. Hence, he suggests PRPFX might be as good a hiding place as anywhere else (better than most) because virtually anything might happen next and PRPFX covers all the bases (though he doesn’t get the exact allocation right).

Dunno. He’s frustrated because it’s hard to make $$ in these markets, Sounds stressed out. But I enjoyed following his rambling chain of thought. I think if folks listen carefully and critically they might take away a few bits of investment wisdom. But be careful not to swallow hook line and sinker everything he says. Could cost you.

AndyJ

Agree with Hank about JG overall. I always listen to his January "Just Markets" webcast and usually a couple of others over the course of a year. The value to me is the run-through of the data he follows closely and possible conclusions drawn from that. The assertions that go well beyond that data he lays out ? Not so much.