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JPMorgan Guide to the Markets


  • beebee
    edited April 2021
    From the above report I highlight this page which appears to help investors back test asset allocations with regard to (4) different inflation scenarios. Seems worth studying...discussing.

    If Inflation rises quickly and to higher levels (upper right chart)... Emerging Market equities out perform all other asset classes.

    If the Fed is able to control the rate of inflation rising slowly (lower left chart)... both Emerging Market equities and Gold lead and only cash is an under performer.

    It would be nice to overly (4) interest rate environments in combination with inflation scenarios since the combination of interest change and inflation change seems equally important.

  • beebee
    edited April 2021
    Here a chart that adjusts interest rates of the 10 yr treasury from core inflation. Even though both interest rates and inflation are at a very low level right now, I am under the impression that it is the rate of change (how quickly / slowly) that spooks the markets.

  • Slide #6 has some sobering perspective on expected returns from S&P500.

    Slides #10 and #11 aremind-blowing (P/E ratio of Top 10 stocks in S&P500 over time; S&P500 valuation disperstion) -- feels like year 2000 all over again.

    Lots of other great content that puts the current market environment and rising rates in perspective -- and keeps one grounded.
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