Shorter and Hotter Cycles Ahead...Morgan Stanley View

bee

Lots of mid cycle thoughts...

But don't worry, that's likely not happening any time soon. However, it does mean we could move from an early cycle playbook to more of a mid cycle strategy sooner than normal. Sectors like energy, industrials and health care may do better from here, which is earlier than what we experienced in the prior two expansions. It also means small caps start to underperform large caps sooner than normal, which is a big reason we downgraded small caps last week.

The bottom line: this cycle and bull market likely have years to run. However, it’s running at a faster speed, and that means staying nimble and a bit more tactical with one's equity portfolio. Consider moving more mid-cycle sooner, rather than later.

Audio and weekly Brief:
https://morganstanley.com/ideas/thoughts-on-the-market-wilson

MikeW

Thanks for sharing @bee. I was listening to Dan Skelly of MS this morning on Bloomberg making a similar case. They see opportunities in large cap value instead of small cap value. I assume this is because small cap has moved so much since November. Interesting he doesn't mention financials above

bee

@MikeW...maybe LCV YACKX?

FFNPX looks interesting the MCV space. Managed by Tillinghast (FLPSX).

Simon

I do agree that shorter and hotter cycles are likely ahead. But taking a longer term view (7-10 years) I still think small and mid caps, especially growth orientated, will outperform large caps. I like BIGRX and DHLAX for LCV and have been nibbling at them both in the last 6 months.

carew388

FFNPX is closed to investors and only available to certain fee-based accounts and advisory accounts at Fidelity.