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Not All Booms Are Bad

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in Other Investing
In this paper I examine the frequency of large, sudden increasesin market value in a broad panel data of world equity markets extending from the beginning of the20th century. I find the probability of a crash conditional on a boom is only slightly higher than theunconditional probability. The chances that a market gave back it gains following a doubling in valueare about 10%. In simple terms, bubbles are booms that went bad. Not all booms are bad.
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES- BUBBLE INVESTING:LEARNING FROM HISTORY - William N. Goetzmann
https://nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w21693/w21693.pdf
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