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Here’s what come up at Yahoo: “Hmmm... the page you're looking for isn't here. Try searching” above.
From the title, it sounds like somebody’s trying to draw some broad conclusions from the year about to end. Maybe they’re going to suggest that “buying the dip“ is a proven strategy? I dunno. On top of 2019, which was a pretty decent year, 2020 is shaping up to be “too good to be true.” I mean how many eggs can the golden goose deliver when cash yields 0 and bonds 2 or 3%?
I’m “frozen in the lights“ so to speak. Not doing anything - except have reduced the speculative positions I opened in March & April. Those specs amount to “gambling“ with my nominal cash reserves when I think there’s a special compelling opportunity. Such was the case in March & April. Admittedly, it was a gamble back than because the news on Covid was nasty,
@Derf - If you have a better link, I’d look forward to reading about whatever it is we’re supposed have learned this year.
@hank; Yup you are right , link was a stinker. Try googling, How the stock market schooled everyone in 2020: Morning Brief It worked for me . right below 2 ads. Have a good evening , Derf
“Assuming the S&P doesn’t erase its year-to-date gain — which it certainly could — 2020 is on track to become another powerful data point in the market history books, which are riddled with examples of price moves in conflict with earnings and valuations.”
Yep - Doesn’t make sense to me either. I don’t predict markets, school others or or control what happens. Just going along for the ride. But really? You could have made more money just today alone invested in a S&P index fund than if you’d bought a 1, 2, or maybe even 3 year CD and sat patiently waiting for it to mature all the while. Really doesn’t make a lot of sense if you believe that fundamentally values are relative.
I 'went to school' market-wise in 2007-08 during the GFC[1] which means that I did little to anything dramatic during the market gyrations of 2020 ....and little if any of that was on impulse or emotion. If anything, I would sell one thing to immediately buy something else on big swoons. I learned a ton about the markets back then -- and also myself, truth be told.
[1] Back when I was still daytrading futures during grad school
I attended “investment school” only sporadically between 21 and my mid-40s. Getting burned by the bear market in gold post-1980 taught me a lot as I watched the coins I’d bought at the heights of the euphoria steadily loose value while bullion fell more than 50% over a decade or longer. That’s a lesson I’ve never forgotten.
With a fee-based “advisor” managing my workplace plan from around 1971 until the mid-90s I was largely “in the dark“ - as an underlying principal of that profession is to keep clients uneducated about investments and, hence, dependent on them. That said, at least he had me in what was a pretty good fund in those days, TEMWX.
My serious schooling began in the mid 90s after reading in the WSJ how 403B investors, seemingly locked-in at one fiduciary, could easily and legally transfer assets in any amount from that custodian to virtually anyone they wanted to due to an existing legislation loophole. The loophole was in later years plugged, but gave me the opportunity during my final 5-10 years of working and contributing to transfer funds periodically out of Franklin Templeton to other houses and, at the same time, “cut the cord” between myself and the fee-based advisor. Also, around than our workplace plan broadened to allow fee-exempt contributions to T Rowe Price.
Now that I had control over those investments, reading and learning became somewhat of a passion. I found I enjoyed the process. I won’t recount all the newspapers, magazines, books I read back than, as they’re pretty much standard mill and others here have I’m sure also so self indulged. One source stands out. I’d begun reading The Street.com in the late 90s. Bill Fleckenstein published a column on that site and was screaming loudly that something bad was about to happen. So in the late 90 I moved most of my 403B holdings into cash and bonds. The warnings were correct and the tech sector lost something like 75% of its value over the next few years. Broader markets followed suit - to a lesser degree. Likely, it was a case of listening to the right voice at the right time. I’ve learned, however, in subsequent years to take all “expert“ advice with a large grain of salt. If you can’t confirm their bias with your own independent analysis, stand clear of unsolicited financial advice.
On any given day one’s acquired learning may not seem all that momentous or remarkable. But when you put it all together and reflect over whatever your learning period has been it’s remarkable how much each of us has learned. This board is often a source of that learning. Frequently it works indirectly, however, as something discussed here provokes me to dig deeper into a subject on my own.
[1] Back when I was still daytrading futures during grad school
Bad idea. Seldom this type of behavior ends well financially or academically.
Actually it paid for a good chunk of my doctoral work (not in finance) plus some extra spending money, so I'm not complaining. But if you don't know what you're doing, as many people do, absolutely it is a risk.
I'd been mostly in stocks and some funds since a kid in the '80s. I wanted to get into futures to learn about them as a potential second income stream (active trading). It was an interesting time to be in the markets, as I both 'won' a lot, and lost a lot .... I should add that was just as algos were really taking off and I decided it wasn't worth playing against them regularly or spending the time to develop & code my own trading systems. Not to mention, in 2010 I left consulting & landed my (current) faculty position and priorities shifted. But I still monitor the equity index futures and will dabble with them now and then, since they trade 24x5 compared to stocks.
Back during the GFC I was sitting on a huge pile of cash that I was managing for an aging parent's immediate needs and was wishing we'd see 6, 8, 10% rates on CDs and bonds at some point ... I saw what that did for my grandparents decades ago and it made for a very comfortable retirement for them. If that ever happened again, I'd probably sell down 50% of my portfolios and throw it into government fixed income.
Comments
From the title, it sounds like somebody’s trying to draw some broad conclusions from the year about to end. Maybe they’re going to suggest that “buying the dip“ is a proven strategy? I dunno. On top of 2019, which was a pretty decent year, 2020 is shaping up to be “too good to be true.” I mean how many eggs can the golden goose deliver when cash yields 0 and bonds 2 or 3%?
I’m “frozen in the lights“ so to speak. Not doing anything - except have reduced the speculative positions I opened in March & April. Those specs amount to “gambling“ with my nominal cash reserves when I think there’s a special compelling opportunity. Such was the case in March & April. Admittedly, it was a gamble back than because the news on Covid was nasty,
@Derf - If you have a better link, I’d look forward to reading about whatever it is we’re supposed have learned this year.
Try googling, How the stock market schooled everyone in 2020: Morning Brief
It worked for me . right below 2 ads.
Have a good evening , Derf
“Assuming the S&P doesn’t erase its year-to-date gain — which it certainly could — 2020 is on track to become another powerful data point in the market history books, which are riddled with examples of price moves in conflict with earnings and valuations.”
Yep - Doesn’t make sense to me either. I don’t predict markets, school others or or control what happens. Just going along for the ride. But really? You could have made more money just today alone invested in a S&P index fund than if you’d bought a 1, 2, or maybe even 3 year CD and sat patiently waiting for it to mature all the while. Really doesn’t make a lot of sense if you believe that fundamentally values are relative.
I 'went to school' market-wise in 2007-08 during the GFC[1] which means that I did little to anything dramatic during the market gyrations of 2020 ....and little if any of that was on impulse or emotion. If anything, I would sell one thing to immediately buy something else on big swoons. I learned a ton about the markets back then -- and also myself, truth be told.
[1] Back when I was still daytrading futures during grad school
With a fee-based “advisor” managing my workplace plan from around 1971 until the mid-90s I was largely “in the dark“ - as an underlying principal of that profession is to keep clients uneducated about investments and, hence, dependent on them. That said, at least he had me in what was a pretty good fund in those days, TEMWX.
My serious schooling began in the mid 90s after reading in the WSJ how 403B investors, seemingly locked-in at one fiduciary, could easily and legally transfer assets in any amount from that custodian to virtually anyone they wanted to due to an existing legislation loophole. The loophole was in later years plugged, but gave me the opportunity during my final 5-10 years of working and contributing to transfer funds periodically out of Franklin Templeton to other houses and, at the same time, “cut the cord” between myself and the fee-based advisor. Also, around than our workplace plan broadened to allow fee-exempt contributions to T Rowe Price.
Now that I had control over those investments, reading and learning became somewhat of a passion. I found I enjoyed the process. I won’t recount all the newspapers, magazines, books I read back than, as they’re pretty much standard mill and others here have I’m sure also so self indulged. One source stands out. I’d begun reading The Street.com in the late 90s. Bill Fleckenstein published a column on that site and was screaming loudly that something bad was about to happen. So in the late 90 I moved most of my 403B holdings into cash and bonds. The warnings were correct and the tech sector lost something like 75% of its value over the next few years. Broader markets followed suit - to a lesser degree. Likely, it was a case of listening to the right voice at the right time. I’ve learned, however, in subsequent years to take all “expert“ advice with a large grain of salt. If you can’t confirm their bias with your own independent analysis, stand clear of unsolicited financial advice.
On any given day one’s acquired learning may not seem all that momentous or remarkable. But when you put it all together and reflect over whatever your learning period has been it’s remarkable how much each of us has learned. This board is often a source of that learning. Frequently it works indirectly, however, as something discussed here provokes me to dig deeper into a subject on my own.
Back during the GFC I was sitting on a huge pile of cash that I was managing for an aging parent's immediate needs and was wishing we'd see 6, 8, 10% rates on CDs and bonds at some point ... I saw what that did for my grandparents decades ago and it made for a very comfortable retirement for them. If that ever happened again, I'd probably sell down 50% of my portfolios and throw it into government fixed income.