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https://nytimes.com/2020/10/03/upshot/pandemic-economy-recession.html....what makes a recession a recession is that the initial economic pain, whatever its source, transmits broadly to affect nearly every industry and drive millions of people not into newer and fast-growing sectors but onto the rolls of the unemployed.
The origins of the recession of 2020 may be different from those of the previous two downturns. But so far, the way it is spreading from company to company, and industry to industry, looks awfully similar.
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From another article:
“ The level of economic activity is miserable. Seven months into the pandemic, most sectors of the economy are producing below — and in some cases far below — normal levels. The number of jobs on employers’ payrolls was 7 percent below February levels in September, a worse shortfall than at any point in the Great Recession. The share of the population working is only 56.6 percent, down from 61 percent a year ago and lower than it ever got during that downturn and its aftermath.”
I track BLS employment, they report 141.8 million Non-farm jobs currently, down from a high of 153 million& slightly less than Was hit in May 2015. Also the country currently has only 12.2 million manufacturing jobs, down from 12.8 mil. The current level was reached in August 2014. I throw these out there because it seems to me that economic growth requires job growth.
Farming illustrates the potential for increased output from improvements in technology and increased automation even as labor decreases sharply:
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/farming-and-farm-income/
Regarding the employed/population ratio (56.6%). One calculates this by multiplying together:
employment rate, i.e. 1 - unemployment rate, and
"participation rate", i.e. percentage of people employed or actively looking for jobs.
(1 - 7.9%) x 61.4% = 56.6%
This is one reason why the official unemployment figure can be misleading. If a lot of people get discouraged and drop out of the workforce, then they are not counted as unemployed. This shows up as a lower participation rate rather than a higher unemployment rate.
The participation rate, 61.4% is almost two percent lower than it was a year ago (63.2%). However, that participation rate from a year ago was itself lower than it was "at any point in the Great Recession." So at least some of the decline in the percentage of the population working likely has little to do with the pandemic, but rather reflects a generally declining participation rate. It's difficult to disentangle multiple causes.
(Seasonally adjusted, from the end of 2007 to the end of 2010, the participation rate dropped around 1½% , continuing to decline slowly for another 3-4 years. It stabilized and began rising slightly only in the second half of 2019.)
Please consider providing links to sources, especially ones quoted. Statistics also.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/upshot/2020-terrible-job-market.html (quoted text)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm (Current BLS employment report, generally released first Friday of each month)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm (BLS total employment, unemployment data)
https://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm (Employment, unemployment historical data)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm (BLS nonfarm data, incl. mfg detail)
https://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab1.htm (Nonfarm historical data)
BTW, I see good signs for stocks uptrend since the last bottom about 2 weeks ago.
By now I think many are aware that you are an active bond fund trader.
I hope it works out for you. What are you buying?
Most should just do use KISS = SPY+QQQ
I don't need more risk/volatility because YTD I have done very well.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/wall-street-got-what-it-wanted-from-trump-ready-for-biden.html