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“We now expect that at least one vaccine will be approved by the end of 2020 and will be widely distributed by the end of 2021Q2,” Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs wrote on Sunday.
...the availability of a vaccine is key to giving consumers the confidence to go back out there and spend.
Goldman’s increased optimism about the vaccine led the firm to increase its 2021 GDP growth forecast to +6.2% (from +5.6%) and lower its 2021 year-end unemployment rate forecast to 6.5% (from 7.0%).
....even if Goldman is correct about the timing of the vaccine, the firm’s forecasts also assume consumers continue to get aid until public health conditions are more normalized.
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