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From The San Francisco Chronicle:
Joshua Weitz, a professor of biological sciences at Georgia Tech and the lead developer of the COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool, collaborated with fellow professor Clio Andris to develop it. The map was based on data from The Atlantic’s COVID Tracking Project as well as 2019 census data.
The tool’s origins, Weitz said, began in March when he was considering the implications of rising case counts. Friends and colleagues were asking him about the chances that someone might be infected at an event.
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Sending to the non-believers on an email list.
Might help.
risk level definition:
Stay Safe, Derf
The Lt. Gov. wants to shut down again, for 2 weeks. (05 Aug '20.)
For example, here's a piece from The Atlantic's Covid Tracking Project (the source of much of the tool's data) explaining why it's not necessarily meaningful to compare NY's and Fla's peak per capita case rates. In a nutshell, NY was unable to do as much testing (it was overwhelmed back in April), so it didn't capture the same fraction of actual cases as did Florida. (Cuomo had a study done to get a better handle on the actual case rate per capita, that suggested over 1/5 of NYC had the coronavirus at the time.)
Even for tests done today, different states are testing differently, so the figures are still not comparable. Nevertheless, the tool assumes a 10x factor (actual vs. tested), or 5x if you change the setting at the bottom left. Independent of state.
Inside or outside doesn't matter - this is just showing the probability of coming into contact with someone that's Covid-positive if you "meet" N people. It doesn't care whether you meet them concurrently at an event or consecutively walking along a street. By default, N is set to 100, but you can change that also.
This number is important because the greater N is, the greater the difference in probabilities. Suppose you're comparing two regions, one where 1% of the populace have the virus, one where 2% have the virus.
If you meet one person, the probability of being "safe" (not encountering someone with the virus) is 99% in region 1, and 98% in region 2. Now you meet a second person (same party or wherever). The probability that you're safe (neither person you met had the virus) is 99% x 99% = 98.01% in region 1, and 96.04% in region 2. The difference between the two regions grows exponentially.
After "meeting" 10 people, the probability of still being "safe" is 99% ^ 10 ~= 90.44% in region 1, and 98% ^ 10 ~= 81.71% in region 2.
Again, this tool just approximates one factor in how likely you are to become infected. That depends not only on the number of infected people you come into contact with, but, as you implied, how that contact takes place and what precautions you take.
To some extent it can factor in the national "comparison between counties variable", but obviously the present national reporting setup is so inconsistent and undependable that this is only an educated guess at best.
The map site itself notes the difficulty in evaluation: If the map encourages people to take proper precautions, it's done some good.
New Zealand was doing well too but not quite sure currently with small new clusters breakouts
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/how-to-test-every-american-for-covid-19-every-day/615217/
pub date yesterday, Aug 14
Many Americans ... may not understand is that [testing] is failing, now. In each of the past two weeks, and for the first time since the pandemic began, the country performed fewer COVID-19 tests than it did in the week prior. The system is deteriorating. ...
“The only thing that makes a difference in the economy is public health, and the only thing that makes a difference in public health is testing,” Simon Johnson, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, told us.
https://www.kitv.com/story/41672004/honolulus-rail-project-faces-another-delay https://www.staradvertiser.com/2019/02/25/breaking-news/hart-reportedly-issued-third-subpoena/
Having been everything from an occasional winter time visitor to a full-time home owner/resident in Hawaii during the past 50+ years, it's my clear sense Hawaii has a distinct relationship with the mainland and mainlanders. The laid back Hawaii Time approach extends to its attitude towards dollars that flow there from Washington D.C. and other mainland locations. Fifteen years owning and managing a vacation rental condo on Molokai (8,000 person population) provided first-hand experience dealing as a semi-outsider with full-time island residents who often treat each other as members of an extended family. People like me were simply viewed a good source of extra income when it came to doing business. Accepting as partially inevitable that "Hawaii is where tax dollars (as well as other mainland dollars) go to disappear" proved to be quite helpful during those 15 years!
As you can see, that article is nearly three years old. What was "completed" on the Second Ave subway line was just the first phase (3 stops) of a multi-phase plan. http://secondavenuesagas.com/2019/09/23/mta-officials-cite-fire-code-in-defending-6-billion-cost-for-phase-2-of-the-second-ave-subway/
While the Big Dig was highway construction, FWIW, the cost per mile (in 2020 dollars) was $2.87B/mile. That's using Wikipedia's $21.5B cost, and a distance of 7.5 miles from USA Today and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts (Big Dig Facts and Figures).
https://www.google.com/maps/uv?hl=en&pb=!1s0x89e3709c9a2a79d1:0xa2e5d5a28d08bc80!3m1!7e115!4shttps://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipNZR1LT90ubg6CLFD-nDWa3zDcrITbtaJvZmwii=w225-h160-k-no!5s54th ma regiment memorial boston - Google Search!15sCgIgAQ&imagekey=!1e10!2sAF1QipNZR1LT90ubg6CLFD-nDWa3zDcrITbtaJvZmwii&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjiy5fC9KDrAhUxNX0KHajrDXkQoiowEHoECBcQBg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Gould_Shaw_Memorial
File Source
Yes, a very well done memorial. My wife and I were quite overwhelmed when we ran across it on the Commons.