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I would like to know where you are at this year? Up? Down? or at 0? What you did in the crash, good or bad? And, if given a chance again, what you might change or what you learned? Me? I'm down 1.2% for the year. What I learned....all hail the Fed. God bless the Pudd
Hi, I seldom participate the board. I am foreign, so I am afraid my English may be inadequate. I started investing in mutual funds since 1980. Had few loss year, not much. I managed 15 accounts (my and family) at Fidelity, total 6,000,000+. 1 year lowest gain is 27.7%, highest gain is 39.22%. As of now. US mutual funds are 50%, foreign 20%, cash 30%. Normally, I invest 100%. On March 5, I sole in one day 87% of my account. Tipping toe into markets on March 19, Market bottom 23, I put in 30% on March 24, by April 10, I was 100% invested. Sold 30% on June 15, now I am 70% in the market. Total combine of 15 accounts, YTD gain as of today is 40.34%. Puddlehead, I like your comments, I learn a lot from you. I realize you and I are similar. I may be more aggressive. I do not wait for manager that used to do well to turnaround. People still talk about SFGIX, GLOFT FAMEX...... I got rid of them long long time ago. In my experience, those used to do well, few of them will come back to glory agaim I made tons of toney from GLGOX, my number holdin. As soon as they turn south, it was totally gone in 6 months. SFGIX. I had it from day 1, did not last too long. It was good, but there are other better. I do not wait those kid that was number 1 in class, now they are number 15 to turn around to be number 1 again. Chances are there, but slim. Latest new positions (testing) MEGMX Matfx CAREX DBMAX BFTHX and adding into a few existing funds. The most impressive recently acquired was ADNPX. young fund probably better than carex
I'm down in my long-long term account but that's fine since I ain't tapping it for another 30 years. The market tanked literally the day after that account rang the bell for a 'major round number' ... I'm glad I caught that print.
-9% YTD -5% 12mo +8.22% 5yr
I'm up 7% YTD in my 'active' account of similar value, so it all balances out.
I'm up a modest % YTD in a SMA that until I moved it held corporate FI but will be transitioning to allocation positioning this month.
In 2020 my portfolio was up almost every week, max loss from any top was 0.5%. I sold most of my portfolio at the end of 02/2020. See thread(link). YTD I'm up nicely. In the last 3 years, I made 9.3% annually with SD=2.07 as of July 3rd, 2020. This is based on my Schwab accounts which are about 95% of our portfolio.
At the moment, I'm down by -1.8% from my all-time high figure. It makes the most sense to me to use my "top" as the point of comparison. That all-time high was (like most of us?) back in February, before the Big Slide. I continue to buy PTIAX in little bits, each month, on schedule. Given our situation, it makes no sense anymore to put money into an IRA--- though most of our investments are in IRAs: a small amount in BRUFX and the rest in TRP.
Hi guys, This year my focus was to grow my income generation coming from my portfolio while at the same time maintain my principal balance. Now, six months into the year, I have grown my income generation by 5.85% while I have also maintained my portfolio's principal valuation at the midyear mark. Ideally, I'd like to get income generation up to an 8% growth measure, this year, while also maintaining principal. In order, for me to grow income generation I have had to position into assets that have not had the upside that non income generating asset have had that were more of the growth type. With this, viewing everything that has taken place thus far this year, I am pleased with what I have accomplished.
My current asset allocation is 10% cash, 45% income and 45% equity. This asset allocation puts me +5% overweight in the income area and equity area of my portfolio from my baseline asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. Should the yield on the S&P 500 Index fall to 1.8% I will reduce my equity allocation from 45% to 40% and raise my cash allocation by a like amount. This will give me some cash to play the next stock market pull back which I believe will come sometime between now and before year end especially should a non business friendly President win the November election.
I find it interesting that some retirees on the board have a top line growth objective while I have an income generation objective.
Hi guys, WOW.......gk3105gklm, all I can say is wow. Your English is good enough for me. I look at your post and am amazed. You're right.....we are alike, and you are more aggressive than I. Again, I'm retired, so I have limits....lol. I do wish you would post more. I like your gunslinger mentality. I also have learned over time that talk is cheap and can lose you money. When it's time to go......go. I do not love what I own. So, again gk3105gklm, please post more. I like your posts. Have looked at ADNPX. Yeah, if I were younger...... Old news: my last growth and tech buy was BGSAX. Right now we're just one vaccine away from records. The sun shines....bright walk in the light. God bless the Pudd
Hi Puddlehead, Thanks for answering my comments. I am a retiree too at age 55 in 2001. I imagine myself as a coach, recruiting a player that can shoot. As long as they can, they are in. If not, out. I closely watch my players. I do not wait for a sharp shooter that are in slump to turn around. I'd rather locate other sharp shooter. AKREX was my #1 holding for many years out of 36 funds. To me. this fund is in slump. Last bought 4/8/20. Sold all from 4/15 to 6/29/20. It is painful to cut love. Now #1 holding is MACGX. I own 5 tech funds, BFOCX, ADNPX, BGSAX, PGTAX and FSCSX. If you compare return of these funds: 1 wk, 1 month, 3 months, YTD, 1 yr and 3 yrs, ADNPX is #1, BFOCX #2 BGSAX #3, PGTAX #4 and FSCSX #5 (will be out). Did not remove it from roster due to tax gain burden.
Hi Puddlehead, you may say I am a gunslinger, but i rather call myself as a market timer. I do not, in general, time the markets, it is too hard. I did it earlier this year due to imbalance of greed and fear. When it is overwhelm, too much greed or too much fear, action will happen. I do respect the markets. In general, I do not go that extreme , to sell or buy so much in one day. I re-balance them frequently to help me sleep at night. Current asset allocation, Cash 10%, equity 90% Equity: Technology 20.5%, Large cap 24.56% Mid cap 20.22%, small cap 6.72%, international 28% (foreign large cap 14.2%, emerging markets 13.8%) This emerging markets, I always have some, started to increase holding in early April, 2020 after I convince myself the dollar will be weakening for the rest of 2020. DXY peaked on 3/20/20 at 102.82, as of yesterday it was 96.46
Yeah, I think a lot of people took advantage of the drop earlier this year. And I think now we're at the top of a trading range and we'll go lower. Question: who are your mid cap holdings and your EM, if I may ask? Right now, I'm looking at Staples for the fall, second wave. Right now in my portfolio, I have 14 positions at or near 52-week highs. That's not good near term. Also done buying tech for now. Not much I want now. Also have talked to friends....not many are going to get the vaccine right away. This could be a problem. God bless the Pudd
.....Still down from all-time highs, but just by a fraction, right now. Very happy with BRUFX. Switched into it from VEIRX in April. (From 403b to Trad-IRA: wife.) PTIAX is a bright spot. My bond funds are not swinging for the fences, but quite reliably doing better than the interest-rate on the US 10-year Treasury. PRSNX RPSIX. And PRWCX is slowly and steadily climbing. Best YTD is PRIDX. But PRDSX is still underwater by a little bit. Just coasting. I'm situated where I want to be, in terms of my fund selections.
Hi Crash, I see you have some very good funds. And if you're happy the way things are going, you can't ask for more. Stay safe, Big Guy! God bless the Pudd
Hi Puddlehead, I agree that we are near the mountain top, but I remember one thing the founder of American Century fund, I think his name is Jim Rogers, said years ago when I was young, don't try to time the markets. He advocated to invest 100% at all times. I listened and tried to follow the advice. When imbalance of greed and fear causing sleepless night, i will do things to have a good sleep. The world is so unstable. I used to buy and hold in early 1980, had Lindner fund and Lindner dividend fund ran by Kurt Lindner for years, but that is in the past. With program trading.....I have 8 mid cap holdings: !. MACGX (1/3 of mid cap, #1 in total holding) 2. LCLAX 3. PHSKX 4. AFOIX 5. MXXVX (do not like this one that much, it is somewhat unstable, a candidate to sell in due time) 6. DBMAX 7. BPTRX 9. VIMAX (this is not my choice, it is offered in 401K, will be out soon after my retirement, again). Emerging markets: 1. MEGMX 2. MCSMX (1 and 2 are equally weighted at 30% and each is 3.5% of total asset) 3. MATFX 4. ARTYX Good swimmer can swim against the current if current is not too strong, that is the time to screen the good swimmer, find out resilient funds Foreign Large CAP is also my favorite: I've been into this markets for couple years. I used to have only one holding BGAFX, very impressive and resilient in the down environment, now it is 54% of FLC. In early May I added this 2 funds: MIGPX and CAREX, equally weighted, 23% each in FLC. CAREX does better in the down day. Market watch classifies it in multi cap but Fidelity puts in World Large CAP. Fund incepted in April 1,2020 at $10. As of 7/17, the price was $14.96 First into CAREX on May 5 at $11.63. Vaccine is something like a dream, it may come true. There is one endemic viral deadly mosquito borne disease, Dengue Hemorrhagic fever. This disease causes severe bleeding an cause shock and death. WHO tried to make vaccine for years. Started vaccine given to human being in Philippines and had to give up due to side effects.
Hi Puddlehead, Thanks for answering my comments. I am a retiree too at age 55 in 2001. I imagine myself as a coach, recruiting a player that can shoot. As long as they can, they are in. If not, out. I closely watch my players. I do not wait for a sharp shooter that are in slump to turn around. I'd rather locate other sharp shooter. AKREX was my #1 holding for many years out of 36 funds. To me. this fund is in slump. Last bought 4/8/20. Sold all from 4/15 to 6/29/20. It is painful to cut love. Now #1 holding is MACGX. I own 5 tech funds, BFOCX, ADNPX, BGSAX, PGTAX and FSCSX. If you compare return of these funds: 1 wk, 1 month, 3 months, YTD, 1 yr and 3 yrs, ADNPX is #1, BFOCX #2 BGSAX #3, PGTAX #4 and FSCSX #5 (will be out). Did not remove it from roster due to tax gain burden.
I can't imagine what AKREX did so wrong that you cut your love? I guess if you're always chasing momentum but AKREX is among the best fund of the decade, is up strongly this year and is not reliant on FANG. To each his own.
AKREX is a very good fund, no doubt about that, specially for those buy and hold and check into it once in awhile. I realized that the portfolio of AKREX is very stable, extremely low turn over. In a way, that is good if the world continues in the same direction. AKREX used to go against the markets on the down day, that is what made me fell in love. But, lately it is doing just like other funds. Markets up, AKREX is up, markets down, it is down the same like others. Even the good funds, if portfolio has no changes, sooner or later, all good stocks in the fund will hit the ceiling. I think that is what happen to AKREX. The fact is, the world has changed. I detected weakness in AKREX late last year or early this year. But due to love, did not start divorcing procedure until April this year.
Now compare AKREX to ACFOX:
Category Turnover 1 wk 13 wk ytd i yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr
AKREX Large cap 3% 0.96 14.33 11.42 16.47 22.43 16.36 18.33
ACFOX Large cap 23% (1.42) 30.92 37.60 43.69 29.48 20.17 18.19
Comparison info from Marketwatch.
There still others that will show AKREX is less competitive in this environment, until the world changes again.
I choose this ACFOX to compare because they are similar. Low turnover and in the same category-Large cap. Marketwatch categorized it as multicap. Morningstar puts it in Large cap.
I am not chasing momentum, I am chasing good performer. May be they are the same thing.
AKREX is a very good fund, no doubt about that, specially for those buy and hold and check into it once in awhile. I realized that the portfolio of AKREX is very stable, extremely low turn over. In a way, that is good if the world continues in the same direction. AKREX used to go against the markets on the down day, that is what made me fell in love. But, lately it is doing just like other funds. Markets up, AKREX is up, markets down, it is down the same like others. Even the good funds, if portfolio has no changes, sooner or later, all good stocks in the fund will hit the ceiling. I think that is what happen to AKREX. The fact is, the world has changed. I detected weakness in AKREX late last year or early this year. But due to love, did not start divorcing procedure until April this year.
Now compare AKREX to ACFOX:
Category Turnover 1 wk 13 wk ytd i yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr
AKREX Large cap 3% 0.96 14.33 11.42 16.47 22.43 16.36 18.33
ACFOX Large cap 23% (1.42) 30.92 37.60 43.69 29.48 20.17 18.19
Comparison info from Marketwatch.
There still others that will show AKREX is less competitive in this environment, until the world changes again.
I choose this ACFOX to compare because they are similar. Low turnover and in the same category-Large cap. Marketwatch categorized it as multicap. Morningstar puts it in Large cap.
I am not chasing momentum, I am chasing good performer. May be they are the same thing.
Good luck all.
Great that your approach works for you. As for your comparison, ACFOX is full of high flyers with a PE of 49 versus 33 for AKREX. Not really the same space. I remember holding funds just like this before the DOT.COM bust (PBHG "Select" anyone?). Up north of 100% in under a year...and up on down days too. Then one day it was like 15% of my returns evaporated in a day or two. It would have taken real courage to dump then when a bounce seem inevitable. But there wasn't any. Got out with a small gain eventually (thank god). There are no free lunches but if you are astute enough to capture utterly irrational gains (IMHO) and get out before rationality sets in then that is great (but please do continue to share with us so we can join the party). Good luck as well!
Of course, I remember PBHG, I remember 1987. One day, I will go back to AKREX. As a matter of fact, DOT.COM was not as bad as 1987. I could get out before whole thing collapsed. 1987, no chance to escape, but after all, I had the gain within 12 months.
Nice list of funds. PHSKX is on my watch list already, so I know that one. Also like LCLAX and AFOIX. You know how I like new funds. Also MEGMX....that looks good also. CAREX also looks good.....only on a pullback though. It's already run too much now. You have some really good funds. As you can see, sometimes you need thick skin on this board. But, generally, it's good. It makes you think..... it's a check or a balance, so to speak. Also sold a fund today....one I really want to see go. Anyway, keep posting. I can learn from you. God bless the Pudd
Comments
Vanguard accnt private brokersge
YTD -2.7%,
12 months +0.7%,
3 years +6.3% annually
Largest holders
Vgstx
Vpccx
Wellington fund
Brk.b
Qqq
Vanguard 2045
Vanguard 2050
Vht
Vde
Lots private bonds
Mother Fidelity conservative
6% foreign stocks/ 21%domestic stocks
61% bonds
12%short term bonds
YTD -2.73%
12 months +4.7%
3 yrs +6.73
Largest holder fidelity 2020 fund /fidelity cash mf
Regards
-9% YTD
-5% 12mo
+8.22% 5yr
I'm up 7% YTD in my 'active' account of similar value, so it all balances out.
I'm up a modest % YTD in a SMA that until I moved it held corporate FI but will be transitioning to allocation positioning this month.
YTD I'm up nicely. In the last 3 years, I made 9.3% annually with SD=2.07 as of July 3rd, 2020. This is based on my Schwab accounts which are about 95% of our portfolio.
My current asset allocation is 10% cash, 45% income and 45% equity. This asset allocation puts me +5% overweight in the income area and equity area of my portfolio from my baseline asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. Should the yield on the S&P 500 Index fall to 1.8% I will reduce my equity allocation from 45% to 40% and raise my cash allocation by a like amount. This will give me some cash to play the next stock market pull back which I believe will come sometime between now and before year end especially should a non business friendly President win the November election.
I find it interesting that some retirees on the board have a top line growth objective while I have an income generation objective.
WOW.......gk3105gklm, all I can say is wow. Your English is good enough for me. I look at your post and am amazed. You're right.....we are alike, and you are more aggressive than I. Again, I'm retired, so I have limits....lol. I do wish you would post more. I like your gunslinger mentality. I also have learned over time that talk is cheap and can lose you money. When it's time to go......go. I do not love what I own. So, again gk3105gklm, please post more. I like your posts. Have looked at ADNPX. Yeah, if I were younger......
Old news: my last growth and tech buy was BGSAX. Right now we're just one vaccine away from records. The sun shines....bright walk in the light.
God bless
the Pudd
OJ
Yeah, I think a lot of people took advantage of the drop earlier this year. And I think now we're at the top of a trading range and we'll go lower.
Question: who are your mid cap holdings and your EM, if I may ask? Right now, I'm looking at Staples for the fall, second wave. Right now in my portfolio, I have 14 positions at or near 52-week highs. That's not good near term. Also done buying tech for now. Not much I want now. Also have talked to friends....not many are going to get the vaccine right away. This could be a problem.
God bless
the Pudd
I see you have some very good funds. And if you're happy the way things are going, you can't ask for more. Stay safe, Big Guy!
God bless
the Pudd
I agree that we are near the mountain top, but I remember one thing the founder of American Century fund, I think his name is Jim Rogers, said years ago when I was young, don't try to time the markets. He advocated to invest 100% at all times. I listened and tried to follow the advice. When imbalance of greed and fear causing sleepless night, i will do things to have a good sleep. The world is so unstable. I used to buy and hold in early 1980, had Lindner fund and Lindner dividend fund ran by Kurt Lindner for years, but that is in the past. With program trading.....I have 8 mid cap holdings: !. MACGX (1/3 of mid cap, #1 in total holding) 2. LCLAX 3. PHSKX 4. AFOIX 5. MXXVX (do not like this one that much, it is somewhat unstable, a candidate to sell in due time) 6. DBMAX 7. BPTRX 9. VIMAX (this is not my choice, it is offered in 401K, will be out soon after my retirement, again). Emerging markets: 1. MEGMX 2. MCSMX (1 and 2 are equally weighted at 30% and each is 3.5% of total asset) 3. MATFX 4. ARTYX Good swimmer can swim against the current if current is not too strong, that is the time to screen the good swimmer, find out resilient funds Foreign Large CAP is also my favorite: I've been into this markets for couple years. I used to have only one holding BGAFX, very impressive and resilient in the down environment, now it is 54% of FLC. In early May I added this 2 funds: MIGPX and CAREX, equally weighted, 23% each in FLC. CAREX does better in the down day. Market watch classifies it in multi cap but Fidelity puts in World Large CAP. Fund incepted in April 1,2020 at $10. As of 7/17, the price was $14.96 First into CAREX on May 5 at $11.63. Vaccine is something like a dream, it may come true. There is one endemic viral deadly mosquito borne disease, Dengue Hemorrhagic fever. This disease causes severe bleeding an cause shock and death. WHO tried to make vaccine for years. Started vaccine given to human being in Philippines and had to give up due to side effects.
Now compare AKREX to ACFOX:
Category Turnover 1 wk 13 wk ytd i yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr
AKREX Large cap 3% 0.96 14.33 11.42 16.47 22.43 16.36 18.33
ACFOX Large cap 23% (1.42) 30.92 37.60 43.69 29.48 20.17 18.19
Comparison info from Marketwatch.
There still others that will show AKREX is less competitive in this environment, until the world changes again.
I choose this ACFOX to compare because they are similar. Low turnover and in the same category-Large cap. Marketwatch categorized it as multicap. Morningstar puts it in Large cap.
I am not chasing momentum, I am chasing good performer. May be they are the same thing.
Good luck all.
so you are trying to do what your manager is unable to, on a more macro level - ?
Great that your approach works for you. As for your comparison, ACFOX is full of high flyers with a PE of 49 versus 33 for AKREX. Not really the same space. I remember holding funds just like this before the DOT.COM bust (PBHG "Select" anyone?). Up north of 100% in under a year...and up on down days too. Then one day it was like 15% of my returns evaporated in a day or two. It would have taken real courage to dump then when a bounce seem inevitable. But there wasn't any. Got out with a small gain eventually (thank god). There are no free lunches but if you are astute enough to capture utterly irrational gains (IMHO) and get out before rationality sets in then that is great (but please do continue to share with us so we can join the party). Good luck as well!
Nice list of funds. PHSKX is on my watch list already, so I know that one. Also like LCLAX and AFOIX. You know how I like new funds. Also MEGMX....that looks good also. CAREX also looks good.....only on a pullback though. It's already run too much now. You have some really good funds. As you can see, sometimes you need thick skin on this board. But, generally, it's good. It makes you think..... it's a check or a balance, so to speak. Also sold a fund today....one I really want to see go. Anyway, keep posting. I can learn from you.
God bless
the Pudd