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Bill Gross's Investment Outlook For March: Rational Temperence
But I would step now into the forbidden territory of equity pricing by presenting additional historical correlations compiled by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research – admittedly not a thickly populated academically staffed organization like the Fed, but a well-regarded one nonetheless. He points out in a recent daily release that high yield and corporate bonds are really just low beta equivalents of stocks. It appears that they are. The following charts show a rather commonsensical negative correlation of high yield spreads (and therefore future high yield returns) to stock prices.
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http://www.ftadviser.com/2013/02/27/investments/fixed-income/cfa-study-says-corporate-bonds-are-overvalued-sEBDRz84ttSnG1v4fNjH2M/article.html