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The pandemic has complicated the usual methods and models for compiling employment data. But uncertainty has been offset by transparency....economists across the political spectrum say it would be all but impossible to manipulate the jobs numbers undetected.
Erica Groshen, a Cornell University economist who ran the Bureau of Labor Statistics under Mr. Obama, said it was not surprising that a survey intended to measure the ordinary fluctuations in the job market might struggle to capture the nuances of a pandemic-driven shutdown of a vast portion of the economy.
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Comments
I had observed "Actually, if both April and May numbers were adjusted as suggested (to 19.7% unemployment in April and 16.3% in May) the reduction in unemployment, such as it is, would be 3.4%, far better than the official 1.4% reduction." Perhaps I should have written an additional 962 words?
From the NYTimes article. The solid line is monthly unemployment as reported, the dashed line is after "accounting for misclassification":