Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
How Much of the Bear Market Losses Have Been Recovered?
When an investment experiences a 30% loss it requires a subsequent gain of about 43% to get back to "even". This article reviews some of the losses in different categories of the market and subsequent gains off their recent lows.
As on market close today, I have the S&P 500 Index off it's 52 week closing high of 2/19 by 11.3% and up off it's 52 week closing low of 3/23 by 36.0%. For me, since I was a buyer of equities, in the stock market swoon, has now help me in the rebound as I am now down a mere 5.0%.
@Old_Skeet, off your high by only 5% is pretty good. I just looked at my Schwab Intelligent Portfolio account and it is off about the same, -5.2%. For reference that portfolio is 47% equity. I must admit, I was pretty concerned when that portfolio was in the minus 20+% range. I'm happy with how it's allocation came back.
Good evening @Old_Skeet; When you mention being down a mere 5 % , is that ytd ? Also do you have any ideas as to why SVAAX took a big hit during downturn , yet now it seems to be slow to recover? Schwab is showing still down 20% from its high. @MikeM : I was wondering how your other portfolio is doing in comparison to Schwab Int. Port.? As for me, I just crossed the - 10% as of a few days ago.
I'm bond-heavy. My stuff has come back nicely. I'm just -3.7% down from my all-time highs back in Feb, 2020. But my upward curve will be much less steep than many of you. That's the trade-off. Three biggest among my funds: PRWCX, RPSIX, PRSNX, in that order. We'll have to move to a bigger apt before too long. Maybe time, by next year, to start harvesting dividends. The kids need separate rooms.
Hi @ MikeM. The -5% is year-to-date and accounts for the January RMD I took. I'm off my 52 week high by about 6% to 7%. 7% if you count the January RMD I took in cash and 6% if you factor it back in.
Hi @Derf. SVAAX is a dividend paying value fund. As you know growth has lead value in the recovery. What I like about the dividend paying value funds is that, by in large, they produce qualified dividends which are taxed at a lower rate than ordinary dividends. As you may remember, I was a buyer of IDIVX and LCEAX during the market swoon. I no longer hold LCEAX as I trimmed it from equities during the updraft. Since then, I've let my equity allocation contine to grow and have not rebalanced, although perhaps I should as I planned to do in May.
On the equity side of my portfolio the three best performers year-to-date are AOFAX, SPECX & KAUAX.
On the income side of my portfolio the three best performers year-to-date are CTFAX, FISCX & TSIAX.
The best performing area of my portfolio (year-to-date) is the growth area. Yes, the growth area has performed better than my cash area as I write. In the middle ground, behind the cash area, is the income area.
The worst performing area of my portfolio (year-to-date) is the growth & income area due to it's holding of a lot of value and global type mutual funds. But, it is a good income generator so I'm getting paid while I wait this out, so to speak.
Overall, I'm up about 22% off my 52 week low (March 23rd). This last week was a strong week for me being up about 2.5% while the S&P 500 Index was up about 3%. For me, this is strong upside capture as I have caputured, thus far, just short of 60% of what the S&P 500's upside has been. Given my starting asset allocation of 20/40/40 and present one of 15/40/45 I am extremely happy with this.
For the week my three best performing funds were PGUAX +5.8%, LPEFX +5.7% and PMDAX +4.9%. All are held in the growth area of my portfolio. I had no funds that were in the red for the week.
It will be interesting to see if value can catch up with growth as we move through the rest of the year.
Hi @Derf, as of this morning self managed is down -5.5% YTD, -7% from high. The Schwab robo did better with -5.0 YTD, -5.3% from high. My biggest mistake was having my bond portion in non-diversified, low liquidity funds like IOFAX, MAINX and HY munis. I took a loss selling off IOFAX and MAINX and chalked it up to a lesson learned.
For a total portfolio at about 50% equity, my #s, -5% YTD aren't very good. If you look at a simple 1 fund portfolio like TRP retirement 2015 fund, PARHX, that fund is only down -3.3% YTD. I often ask myself why not just buy that fund and play around the edges if you want to have fun. Not to hurt anyone's feelings, I'm convinced most of us here do not add value to a portfolio. We may talk a good game with our buys and sells and timing but #s don't lie. Hard to beat a target date fund.
PARHX is a good fund, no doubt, and for some it might be a better choice over what they are presently doing.
For me, it would be very costly for me to switch to any one fund such as PARHX. Being an investor since the age of 12 (now age 72+) I built my portfolio over the years (comprised of several accounts) and presently I have now built up huge gains through organic growth. If I were to sell out there would be a sizeable tax bill associated with this as well and some other negative factors (resulting from a bulk sell out) such as increased medicare premiums, so on and so forth.
In addition, owning just one fund does nothing to manage fund manager and strategy risk. Look what happened with one of the board's darlings ... IOFAX. Just ask yourself where would you be if you had gone all in with this one fund?
Moving on ... This is why the board is so great as we can exchange ideas and concepts. What might be right for one just might not be so right for another. And, by all means ... I'm not saying what I am doing is the absolute best.
With this, I wish you the very best with your investing endeavors and that you will come up with something that brings you the results you seek.
In addition, owning just one fund does nothing to manage fund manager and strategy risk.
You couldn't be more wrong about PARHX @Old_Skeet, or any of the TRP retirement funds. This 1 fund is made up of 13 TRP equity funds and 8 fixed income funds. This fund holds 21 other funds with all different managers and is as diversified between market size and sectors and yes, managers as needed by most anyone's standards. To compare it to a fund with little liquidity and no diversification like IOFAX is silly and misleading.
This is why the board is so great as we can exchange ideas and concepts. What might be right for one just might not be so right for another.
Can't disagree with this statement. It doesn't mean though that exchanging ideas and concepts on this board or any board adds much to total return. It may very well act opposite.
Comments
Also do you have any ideas as to why SVAAX took a big hit during downturn , yet now it seems to be slow to recover? Schwab is showing still down 20% from its high.
@MikeM : I was wondering how your other portfolio is doing in comparison to Schwab Int. Port.?
As for me, I just crossed the - 10% as of a few days ago.
A good weekend to all, Derf
Hi @Derf. SVAAX is a dividend paying value fund. As you know growth has lead value in the recovery. What I like about the dividend paying value funds is that, by in large, they produce qualified dividends which are taxed at a lower rate than ordinary dividends. As you may remember, I was a buyer of IDIVX and LCEAX during the market swoon. I no longer hold LCEAX as I trimmed it from equities during the updraft. Since then, I've let my equity allocation contine to grow and have not rebalanced, although perhaps I should as I planned to do in May.
On the equity side of my portfolio the three best performers year-to-date are AOFAX, SPECX & KAUAX.
On the income side of my portfolio the three best performers year-to-date are CTFAX, FISCX & TSIAX.
The best performing area of my portfolio (year-to-date) is the growth area. Yes, the growth area has performed better than my cash area as I write. In the middle ground, behind the cash area, is the income area.
The worst performing area of my portfolio (year-to-date) is the growth & income area due to it's holding of a lot of value and global type mutual funds. But, it is a good income generator so I'm getting paid while I wait this out, so to speak.
Overall, I'm up about 22% off my 52 week low (March 23rd). This last week was a strong week for me being up about 2.5% while the S&P 500 Index was up about 3%. For me, this is strong upside capture as I have caputured, thus far, just short of 60% of what the S&P 500's upside has been. Given my starting asset allocation of 20/40/40 and present one of 15/40/45 I am extremely happy with this.
For the week my three best performing funds were PGUAX +5.8%, LPEFX +5.7% and PMDAX +4.9%. All are held in the growth area of my portfolio. I had no funds that were in the red for the week.
It will be interesting to see if value can catch up with growth as we move through the rest of the year.
For a total portfolio at about 50% equity, my #s, -5% YTD aren't very good. If you look at a simple 1 fund portfolio like TRP retirement 2015 fund, PARHX, that fund is only down -3.3% YTD. I often ask myself why not just buy that fund and play around the edges if you want to have fun. Not to hurt anyone's feelings, I'm convinced most of us here do not add value to a portfolio. We may talk a good game with our buys and sells and timing but #s don't lie. Hard to beat a target date fund.
PARHX is a good fund, no doubt, and for some it might be a better choice over what they are presently doing.
For me, it would be very costly for me to switch to any one fund such as PARHX. Being an investor since the age of 12 (now age 72+) I built my portfolio over the years (comprised of several accounts) and presently I have now built up huge gains through organic growth. If I were to sell out there would be a sizeable tax bill associated with this as well and some other negative factors (resulting from a bulk sell out) such as increased medicare premiums, so on and so forth.
In addition, owning just one fund does nothing to manage fund manager and strategy risk. Look what happened with one of the board's darlings ... IOFAX. Just ask yourself where would you be if you had gone all in with this one fund?
Moving on ... This is why the board is so great as we can exchange ideas and concepts. What might be right for one just might not be so right for another. And, by all means ... I'm not saying what I am doing is the absolute best.
With this, I wish you the very best with your investing endeavors and that you will come up with something that brings you the results you seek.
Old_Skeet
Stay Safe, Derf
As of today, I'm down 3.3% from my all time high. See more on the Buy - Sell - Hold thread later.
God bless
the Pudd