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Investors Bet Giant Companies Will Dominate After Crisis
Investors Bet Giant Companies Will Dominate After Crisis The virus outbreak supercharged a continuing shift in the markets, with a few giant companies now exerting the most influence over the direction of stocks since the tech boom.
You placed the below information at Old_Skeets barometer thread, but I'm not going to clutter his thread with my request.
virus data may not be that deadly after all the precautions measures implemented. Some predict maybe 0.45-0.9% death rate now instead of 4-10% initially,
As COVID will continue to alter the investing markets going forward..........
JohnN and Mark, the numbers you quote are using different denominators. The 5.8% number is deaths divided by the number of patients testing positive for the Covid-19 virus. The number 0.45-0.9 is the universe of potentially positive patients if they were tested. Several studies show that number may be 10 or more times higher than the denominators currently being used. The actual mortality rate won't be known until most of the United States population are tested tor both the virus and for antibodies to the virus. Actually, we may never know because the data is suspect of being manipulated or suppressed for political reasons. The following link provides a good statistical overview. https://nucleuswealth.com/articles/updated-coronavirus-statistics-cases-deaths-mortality-rate/ Zolta
+1 @Zolta. The link that JohnN provided is to an interview with a top doctor at the U Pitt Hospital system, so one shouldn't dismiss his 0.25% fatality rate out of hand.
That 0.25% rate does however assume that everyone who needs an ICU bed gets one, which has been the case in the US so far, unlike, say, Northern Italy last month or Brazil or Russia right now. We could be heading there too IMHO if we open up too fast.
Anyway, 0.25% times US population (331 millions) gives you over 800,000 deaths.
@expatsp. I must not have made my point. The current data--be it from U Pitt or wherever -- are not reliable or are incomplete, and any extrapolation (e.g., "over 800,000 deaths) is speculation. I think the "investment analogy" would be "with the current data past results do not predict future results."
It does seem like logical argument right? Smaller businesses would have less cash on hand to ride it through and forced to close shop. Some may never be able to reboot, or at least not for a while or in the same shape or form. Meanwhile after things recover, larger corporations still around would swoop in to fulfill their existing demand plus cover the void left by smaller corporations. Without looking at any actual data, this naturally seems to make sense to me. After every crisis, the "too big to fail" become "too bigger to fail".
From MN Doctor Niloo Kruger - She debunks several myths that are going around. Worth reading, we need the truth.
“So much misinformation, so little time. I have decided to write out some myths/false information that keep appearing on my newsfeed. Feel free to comment if you agree or disagree with me. Just please, keep it fact based and be willing to have an open discussion about it.
1. If everyone would just follow the social distancing/isolation rules we would be done with this sooner. - Until we have a more effective method of stopping the spread of COVID and/or treating COVID social distancing and isolation will remain in effect to some level. It is not because people aren’t following the rules, it’s because it’s the only thing we know that can stop it up to date.
2. The flu kills about the same or more than COVID. - The flu on average has killed about 36,000 people per year. COVID has killed 57,000 in 4 months. The mortality rate of the flu is about 0.1% while COVIDs rate is roughly 3%. The argument has been made that COVID mortality rate is actually lower since there are much more cases of COVID that haven’t been tested. This may be true, but likely is also true about the flu (many have it who aren’t tested) and the evidence we have to date supports a rate of 3% and certainly it’s not so much greater to drop the mortality rate 30x lower to equal the flu. The two are not comparable.
3. The health care system can handle millions of flu cases a year, they can handle a couple hundred thousand COVID cases. - Testing and PPE, testing and PPE, testing and PPE. This is the key. We have wide spread testing available of the flu because it isn’t new. We know how to stop the spread of flu (cover your mouth, wash your hands). COVID is new. We don’t have widespread testing of this available, we weren’t prepared for this. Because the testing takes so long for turnover (because there is a backlog and limited testing supplies) we use more PPE than necessary until patient’s test come back. As we get more widespread testing, the turn around will be faster and the amount of PPE needed is less. The stay at home order/isolation bought us time to do this. I heard a great analogy regarding this. McDonald’s serves 68 million people a year, however, if I go up to any McDonalds and order 500 burgers, it overwhelms the facility. They are not prepared to do this. BUT, if I call two weeks ahead (stay at home order for two weeks) and let them know I will be ordering 500 hamburgers, the facility has the time to prepare.
4. The COVID models were all wrong because we don’t have the numbers predicted by them. - The models were based off no stay at home/shelter in place orders. 40 out of 50 states have created some sort of order such as this. This has been the one thing that we know limits the spread of the disease…worked in China and Italy. China started to open back up again and numbers started to climb again. The purpose of these orders are NOT to decrease the number of infections, but to buy time for hospitals to build capacity for beds, training, ventilators, PPE, and testing. Also it buys researchers time to learn about COVID to help with treatment of the disease. This strategy has worked, although it has also tanked the economy. However, what we have learned now can help us slowly open businesses back up using appropriate social distancing that we didn’t know about 6 weeks ago (like wearing cloth masks can help stop spread of asymptomatic infection to others). And even more importantly we have the ability to test and quarantine people who have COVID now, something again, we didn’t have the ability to do 6 weeks ago.
5. Hospitals are getting paid more for COVID and there is pressure on doctors to diagnose patients with COVID and to put it on the death certificate. - This one is truly the most baffling to me. Hospitals are losing millions of dollars due to COVID. No matter who you are, people like to make money. Hospitals like to make money and they do not want to cancel things that are easy money (elective surgeries, well child visits, screening tests). These things have low risk to patients typically and good outcomes. Hospitals have not cancelled this because they are going to make more money with COVID. I assure you, they will not. Children’s Hospital has lost more than 40 million dollars. Last month Allina announced that they lost 63 million dollars. Staff at hospitals throughout the country are getting furloughed. No one is making money because of this. They stopped these easy money things because they know that without widespread testing available and without proper PPE, you risk healthcare workers being exposed to COVID and some data has come out that healthcare workers are at higher risk of mortality due to higher viral loads presumably due to increased exposure. Also, doctor’s do not sign death certificates unless they are a forensic pathologist. Doctor’s do determine cause of death. Cardiac arrest or respiratory failure have never been appropriate to put as a cause of death because virtually everyone ultimately dies of this. Instead, the INCITING SOURCE that precipitated the cardiac arrest or respiratory failure is what should be placed as the cause of death. So for instance, if patient comes in with COVID and ultimately gets a pulmonary emoblism (because COVID has been found to put you at increased risk of clots) that leads to cardiac shock and that’s why you die, then the appropriate cause of death is COVID. Because COVID tests haven’t been widespread, physicians have been allowed (not coerced or pressured) to put COVID as the suspected inciting source as the cause of death despite them not having a test to prove the patient had COVID. I know of no doctor who feels pressured to label something as COVID. Overall, every physician, nurse, healthcare worker, administrator, hospital is losing money, just like the rest of us.
Comments
You placed the below information at Old_Skeets barometer thread, but I'm not going to clutter his thread with my request. As COVID will continue to alter the investing markets going forward..........
PLEASE provide your source for the following:
Some predict maybe 0.45-0.9% death rate
Thank you,
Catch
UPMC doctor argues COVID-19 not as deadly as feared, says its hospitals will shift back to normal
https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html
0.25%
Misread from 0.45%...
Could also be relate to geographic areas also
I think I read somewhere early march death rate maybe up to 9%...
'From one donald to another donald'
Pls stay safe regardless
6.3% in MN to date. (6228 cases, 395 deaths)
The following link provides a good statistical overview.
https://nucleuswealth.com/articles/updated-coronavirus-statistics-cases-deaths-mortality-rate/
Zolta
That 0.25% rate does however assume that everyone who needs an ICU bed gets one, which has been the case in the US so far, unlike, say, Northern Italy last month or Brazil or Russia right now. We could be heading there too IMHO if we open up too fast.
Anyway, 0.25% times US population (331 millions) gives you over 800,000 deaths.
“So much misinformation, so little time. I have decided to write out some myths/false information that keep appearing on my newsfeed. Feel free to comment if you agree or disagree with me. Just please, keep it fact based and be willing to have an open discussion about it.
1. If everyone would just follow the social distancing/isolation rules we would be done with this sooner.
- Until we have a more effective method of stopping the spread of COVID and/or treating COVID social distancing and isolation will remain in effect to some level. It is not because people aren’t following the rules, it’s because it’s the only thing we know that can stop it up to date.
2. The flu kills about the same or more than COVID.
- The flu on average has killed about 36,000 people per year. COVID has killed 57,000 in 4 months. The mortality rate of the flu is about 0.1% while COVIDs rate is roughly 3%. The argument has been made that COVID mortality rate is actually lower since there are much more cases of COVID that haven’t been tested. This may be true, but likely is also true about the flu (many have it who aren’t tested) and the evidence we have to date supports a rate of 3% and certainly it’s not so much greater to drop the mortality rate 30x lower to equal the flu. The two are not comparable.
3. The health care system can handle millions of flu cases a year, they can handle a couple hundred thousand COVID cases.
- Testing and PPE, testing and PPE, testing and PPE. This is the key. We have wide spread testing available of the flu because it isn’t new. We know how to stop the spread of flu (cover your mouth, wash your hands). COVID is new. We don’t have widespread testing of this available, we weren’t prepared for this. Because the testing takes so long for turnover (because there is a backlog and limited testing supplies) we use more PPE than necessary until patient’s test come back. As we get more widespread testing, the turn around will be faster and the amount of PPE needed is less. The stay at home order/isolation bought us time to do this.
I heard a great analogy regarding this. McDonald’s serves 68 million people a year, however, if I go up to any McDonalds and order 500 burgers, it overwhelms the facility. They are not prepared to do this. BUT, if I call two weeks ahead (stay at home order for two weeks) and let them know I will be ordering 500 hamburgers, the facility has the time to prepare.
4. The COVID models were all wrong because we don’t have the numbers predicted by them.
- The models were based off no stay at home/shelter in place orders. 40 out of 50 states have created some sort of order such as this. This has been the one thing that we know limits the spread of the disease…worked in China and Italy. China started to open back up again and numbers started to climb again. The purpose of these orders are NOT to decrease the number of infections, but to buy time for hospitals to build capacity for beds, training, ventilators, PPE, and testing. Also it buys researchers time to learn about COVID to help with treatment of the disease. This strategy has worked, although it has also tanked the economy. However, what we have learned now can help us slowly open businesses back up using appropriate social distancing that we didn’t know about 6 weeks ago (like wearing cloth masks can help stop spread of asymptomatic infection to others). And even more importantly we have the ability to test and quarantine people who have COVID now, something again, we didn’t have the ability to do 6 weeks ago.
5. Hospitals are getting paid more for COVID and there is pressure on doctors to diagnose patients with COVID and to put it on the death certificate.
- This one is truly the most baffling to me. Hospitals are losing millions of dollars due to COVID. No matter who you are, people like to make money. Hospitals like to make money and they do not want to cancel things that are easy money (elective surgeries, well child visits, screening tests). These things have low risk to patients typically and good outcomes. Hospitals have not cancelled this because they are going to make more money with COVID. I assure you, they will not. Children’s Hospital has lost more than 40 million dollars. Last month Allina announced that they lost 63 million dollars. Staff at hospitals throughout the country are getting furloughed. No one is making money because of this. They stopped these easy money things because they know that without widespread testing available and without proper PPE, you risk healthcare workers being exposed to COVID and some data has come out that healthcare workers are at higher risk of mortality due to higher viral loads presumably due to increased exposure. Also, doctor’s do not sign death certificates unless they are a forensic pathologist. Doctor’s do determine cause of death. Cardiac arrest or respiratory failure have never been appropriate to put as a cause of death because virtually everyone ultimately dies of this. Instead, the INCITING SOURCE that precipitated the cardiac arrest or respiratory failure is what should be placed as the cause of death. So for instance, if patient comes in with COVID and ultimately gets a pulmonary emoblism (because COVID has been found to put you at increased risk of clots) that leads to cardiac shock and that’s why you die, then the appropriate cause of death is COVID. Because COVID tests haven’t been widespread, physicians have been allowed (not coerced or pressured) to put COVID as the suspected inciting source as the cause of death despite them not having a test to prove the patient had COVID. I know of no doctor who feels pressured to label something as COVID. Overall, every physician, nurse, healthcare worker, administrator, hospital is losing money, just like the rest of us.