Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Not sure if these data and graphs have been posted already, but I find them highly useful as you can use the pull-down menu to find your specific state of residence or most countries in the world to see where they stand with the Covid crisis--deaths and peak date--and how prepared they are with respirators and ICUs versus the expected mortality rate. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Is there any data out there that overlays COVID-19 with other illness related data. Have we lump death related illnesses like the common cold in with COVID-19?
How are we able to rely on the accuracy of this data when we seem so ill prepared with testing and monitoring?
1 in 5 COVID-19 deaths in Palm Beach County, Florida have happened with the Rest Home population which is quite high compared to the general population. Differentiating data with subset of populations might be helpful.
If we believe the data, June 1 looks like a date where cases start to zero out.
Article from the NYT on The Year Ahead in America with COVID-19:
More than 20 experts in public health, medicine, epidemiology and history shared their thoughts on the future during in-depth interviews. When can we emerge from our homes? How long, realistically, before we have a treatment or vaccine? How will we keep the virus at bay?
There is also an audio transcript embedded in the article that is also worth reading:
But all the models say that maybe 3 percent of America is infected by now. The other epidemiologists think maybe it’s 10 percent. That 10 percent is a pretty high guess. So that still leaves 300 million Americans uninfected. So we’re a country that’s somewhere north of 90 percent susceptible. And each time we do the dance out and dance in, we chop a few more people off that susceptible list. A few of them are dead. A bunch of them become immune. But it only proceeds in fits and starts. Maybe we go three million at a time, three million at a time, three million at a time. It’s not a fast process.
and,
There are a very small number of people now who are immune. And they’re very much in demand. They’re in demand for their blood, because you can harvest antibodies from their blood. They’re in demand for doing medical jobs that are dangerous, like intubating patients, because they can do it without fear of infection. They’ll be in demand for all sorts of other jobs, because they can travel anywhere. They can do face-to-face interactions with customers without any fear. And they’re going to be a special class in society. There will be different standards, different ways of living for two different classes in society. So say you’re an immune and I’m not. I basically have to stay inside here in hiding, and I’m depressed as hell about it. I have a granddaughter who’s going to be born in June, and I sit here in my apartment thinking, I may not see her until she’s two years old. And that’s horrible to contemplate, but it may be a fact. Meanwhile, you, as an immune, could go visit my granddaughter or go out and take my job, or —
and,
donald g. mcneil jr.
Yes. People are going to be tempted to become immunes and to do it the chickenpox party way. michael barbaro
What do you mean? donald g. mcneil jr.
To deliberately infect themselves, hoping for the best, but that they emerge at the end of it as an immune. That temptation is going to be enormous. michael barbaro
You’re describing deliberate and perhaps large scale acts of self-infection.
donald g. mcneil jr.
So it’s people making life or death decisions for freedom. michael barbaro
I looked into this site's data on Connecticutt. I dont know where they got the numbers on resources but they are inaccurate low and misleading.
The estimates of ICU beds for example are inaccurate, and probably are just pulled from historical reports before Covid. I am not sure his "ICU" bed number even counts Surgical ICU beds (SICU) or Cardiac Units or recovery rooms, all of which can be used for Covid ICU patients. The numbers of ICU beds in CT has been listed as 99 for weeks, which is way below the true number.
Greenwich Hospital ( ( 200 bed hospital hardest hit close to NYC) had 24 ICU beds alone with 20 spare ventilators on April 7th.
Yale New Haven Hospital is at least five times the size of Greenwich and has at least 100 patients in the ICU there. There are large hospitals in Hartford, Bridgeport Danbury that have significant numbers as well. For example, Waterbury hopsital had at least 10 ICU and 10 SICU beds before Covid, for example, and I am sure all these beds are being used now, along with the cardiac unit with 5 or 10 more beds. This doesnt count the recovery room either.
There must be at least 200 ICU beds in the state, probably closer to 300. Yet this site continues to list only 99.
We use the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) data repository on Github to collate daily death numbers due to COVID-19. Recently, we have added death data from the French governmental dashboard, Colorado’s Department of Public Health and Environment website, and Illinois’s Department of Health COVID-19 website. Our models are updated regularly as new data are available, to provide the most up-to-date planning tool possible.
But if you have evidence the data's wrong for your state, I think you should contact them and tell them it's wrong: [email protected] healthdata.org/about/contact-us Having accurate data on this disease is vital right now, so telling them this would be a great service on your part to the people of Connecticut.
Comments
How are we able to rely on the accuracy of this data when we seem so ill prepared with testing and monitoring?
1 in 5 COVID-19 deaths in Palm Beach County, Florida have happened with the Rest Home population which is quite high compared to the general population. Differentiating data with subset of populations might be helpful.
If we believe the data, June 1 looks like a date where cases start to zero out.
There is also an audio transcript embedded in the article that is also worth reading: and, and,
I looked into this site's data on Connecticutt. I dont know where they got the numbers on resources but they are inaccurate low and misleading.
The estimates of ICU beds for example are inaccurate, and probably are just pulled from historical reports before Covid. I am not sure his "ICU" bed number even counts Surgical ICU beds (SICU) or Cardiac Units or recovery rooms, all of which can be used for Covid ICU patients. The numbers of ICU beds in CT has been listed as 99 for weeks, which is way below the true number.
Greenwich Hospital ( ( 200 bed hospital hardest hit close to NYC) had 24 ICU beds alone with 20 spare ventilators on April 7th.
https://ctmirror.org/2020/04/07/yale-new-haven-health-officials-describe-covid-19-impact-other-hospitals-less-forthcoming/
Yale New Haven Hospital is at least five times the size of Greenwich and has at least 100 patients in the ICU there. There are large hospitals in Hartford, Bridgeport Danbury that have significant numbers as well. For example, Waterbury hopsital had at least 10 ICU and 10 SICU beds before Covid, for example, and I am sure all these beds are being used now, along with the cardiac unit with 5 or 10 more beds. This doesnt count the recovery room either.
There must be at least 200 ICU beds in the state, probably closer to 300. Yet this site continues to list only 99.
healthdata.org/about/contact-us
Having accurate data on this disease is vital right now, so telling them this would be a great service on your part to the people of Connecticut.
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-20-2020/download
22% of 18000 statewide beds in ICU or 3900 beds. 63% of ICU beds are avaliable. The covid19.healthdata.org site site says 964 beds needed.
I emailed them but their automatic response says they are overwhelmed