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With the S&P 500 coming off of the 2200 range towards the last part of March the trend is up. Now at the 2580 range as I write! I would not be surprised to see a near term upside to 2700 range. Perhaps, even 2800.
With a 5% earnings yield 2200 = $110 in earnings ... and, at 2800 = $140.
At first, I thought the hit would be more like 1987 or 9/11. Rapid, event-driven shock. But then, given its unprecedented and widespread nature, I believed this would be as bad as the Great Recession if not worse. That's the way I thought most folks thought ... but I must be wrong. Otherwise, why haven't equities rolled over? Fed and world central banks to the rescue? Or, is it that tech drives S&P (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Microsoft), which will suffer less. But even there, I just don't see an easy way out of this crisis for any sector in the economy. How will future earnings possibly support the current levels?
Hi guys. Pick a number for a low. Mine is 2000 for the S&P 500. With a 5 percent earnings yield equates to the Index's earnings being about $100. Currently S&P's projects earnings to be in the mid $130's thru summer. With a 5 percent earnings yield this puts the Index in the 2600 to 2700 range. As I write the Index is at 2580 range. BINGO. Sure it will move around some from here based upon the news.
I'm doing some tax loss selling today. This will raise my cash by about 5 percent. And, I will do some select buying mostly on the income side of my portfolio in the near term.
Honeywell pressures suppliers to cut prices 30% - Barron's
Honeywell (NYSE:HON) is asking some of its suppliers for 30% price cuts, extended payment terms and other concessions, Barron's reports, citing a letter that says the request mirrors demands it is getting from its customers due to the economic impact of the coronavirus.
"Customers have come to us for support to balance the impacts across their supply chain," according to the letter, which was signed by Honeywell's chief procurement officer. "In turn, we are asking our supply chain partners for similar support." Honeywell reportedly is seeking 30% across-the-board price cuts, 60 additional days to pay its suppliers, 2% rebates on future order volume growth, holding of Honeywell inventory by its suppliers and immediate resolution of outstanding claims against the company."
The article goes on to say:
"To be clear, Barron's saw a letter from only one division of HON. So it does not know whether this sort of letter went out from other parts of HON. My suspicion is that given weakness in so many industries in which HON participates - such as aircraft and various short-cycle (economically-sensitive) industries - the PMT division was not alone.
Importantly, HON has been a well-run, star performer. If HON is seeing intense deflationary price pressures, what happens to GE (GE), which is trying to engineer a rebound? What about the entire real estate industry, ranging from owners of high-rise urban offices to strip mall owners to home builders and agents selling existing homes where owners want (or now need) to sell?
In other words, how sure can anyone be that save cash in a bank yielding, say, zero, is not actually providing a nicely positive real return?"
True or false? I guess we will each have to decide for ourselves.
Seems like everyone on this board, including me, is expecting this market to go lower... But we're probably too small a group for that to qualify as a contrary indicator.
HI @Old_Skeet.... I think its real guesswork at this point to project what the earnings number will be for S&P....Noone knows when the country will reopen again
Perhaps you are correct. However, for me, I running with their revised TTM earnings number published 3-31 and those projected thru September. I expect it to change. But, I feel it is the best currently available.
I,m staying invested within my asset allocation which is set to my risk tolerance. Thus far I have performed pretty much along what my conservative asset allocation funds have performed.
I am just posting how I am governing and what I am seeing. I am sure others think differently and will govern differently.
With this I did some tax loss selling this morning and plan to reposition these sale proceeds back into my portfolio.
Take care ... and, thanks for posting your thoughts.
Yes as you know I greatly appreciate your posts and you sharing your strategy. So Im assuming youre taking your equity position down a bit here with this rally. Are you creating a spif? I'm currently at about 50% equities now and dollar cost averaging back into the market. I was hoping it would break 2400 again so i could add more to equities but I think I'll get another chance with this market. I'm also evaluating a couple of bond funds
The two funds I sold were held within my hybrid income sleeve. I'll be buying during the next pullback within this sleeve thus maintaing my allocation. If the pullback comes soon I'll be buying other funds after 31 days I may by back one of the ones sold. I have targeted some of this money to go into CTFAX. CTFAX positions based upon the movement of the S&P 500 Index.
@old_skeet yes I was doing some research on that one. Thsnks for the heads up. It almost acts like a long/short fund with its flexible mandate. Do you count this as an equity fund for allocation purposes?
@MikeW. I hold CTFAX in my hybrid income sleeve as it kicks off capital gains coming from its investment activity. Plus, it pays a dividend. Check it's disbursement activity on its mutual fund site. It is a good fund to own in volatile markets. Generally, it holds more bonds than equities. But, in stock market pullbacks it loads equities. And, as the market recovers it trims equities and loads bonds. It went in this downdraft from an equity allocation of 15% and increased it to 70% towards the bottom on March 23rd. It employes a 31 day trading rule so it will be around April 24th before it begins to sell down equities should current price levels hold and/or increase and move higher.
Hello guys. Today (Tuesday) looks to be another up day. As I write, this morning about an hour and a half before the market opens, the S&P 500 stock futures are up close to 80 points or about 3%.
Yes Sirs!.. up +3s% today. hope finish strong/ or we may end up flat again like yesterday
Just wait until jobs reports/unemployment/earning outings next few weeks, we maybe having another 3-9% down days
In a blink of an eye, many will start writing next wk recession maybe ceasing and perhaps new bull market starting
'No One Wants to Call Canada’s 21% Stock Surge a Bull Market
S&P/TSX Composite has rallied at the fastest pace on record
Economic pain is just getting started as shutdowns take a toll
As quickly as the Canadian stock market fell into a bear market, it has even more rapidly surged 21% from its bottom. Yet, few are willing to call the rally by its technical definition -- a bull market.
@Charles, was this all a dream? I'm with you, unbelievable. And I still can't believe a V shape recovery - nope. The growth rate of the virus may be slowing, but hasn't the economic damage already been done, across the globe?
They say markets are foward looking... If we're heading to a recovery starting later this year, even if it's a slow one, and interest rates are likely to say at zero for years, then maybe buying stocks in companies likely to survive makes a lot of sense.
(Just playing devil's advocate here, I can't believe this either. But everyone I know and every analyst I read has been saying not to trust this rally, so maybe it's just the old stocks climb a wall of worry story.)
Comments
GO GREEN, Derf
With a 5% earnings yield 2200 = $110 in earnings ... and, at 2800 = $140.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
And the ten year Treasury is up too.
I'm doing some tax loss selling today. This will raise my cash by about 5 percent. And, I will do some select buying mostly on the income side of my portfolio in the near term.
Honeywell pressures suppliers to cut prices 30% - Barron's
Honeywell (NYSE:HON) is asking some of its suppliers for 30% price cuts, extended payment terms and other concessions, Barron's reports, citing a letter that says the request mirrors demands it is getting from its customers due to the economic impact of the coronavirus.
"Customers have come to us for support to balance the impacts across their supply chain," according to the letter, which was signed by Honeywell's chief procurement officer. "In turn, we are asking our supply chain partners for similar support."
Honeywell reportedly is seeking 30% across-the-board price cuts, 60 additional days to pay its suppliers, 2% rebates on future order volume growth, holding of Honeywell inventory by its suppliers and immediate resolution of outstanding claims against the company."
The article goes on to say:
"To be clear, Barron's saw a letter from only one division of HON. So it does not know whether this sort of letter went out from other parts of HON. My suspicion is that given weakness in so many industries in which HON participates - such as aircraft and various short-cycle (economically-sensitive) industries - the PMT division was not alone.
Importantly, HON has been a well-run, star performer. If HON is seeing intense deflationary price pressures, what happens to GE (GE), which is trying to engineer a rebound? What about the entire real estate industry, ranging from owners of high-rise urban offices to strip mall owners to home builders and agents selling existing homes where owners want (or now need) to sell?
In other words, how sure can anyone be that save cash in a bank yielding, say, zero, is not actually providing a nicely positive real return?"
True or false? I guess we will each have to decide for ourselves.
Perhaps you are correct. However, for me, I running with their revised TTM earnings number published 3-31 and those projected thru September. I expect it to change. But, I feel it is the best currently available.
I,m staying invested within my asset allocation which is set to my risk tolerance. Thus far I have performed pretty much along what my conservative asset allocation funds have performed.
I am just posting how I am governing and what I am seeing. I am sure others think differently and will govern differently.
With this I did some tax loss selling this morning and plan to reposition these sale proceeds back into my portfolio.
Take care ... and, thanks for posting your thoughts.
Skeet
The futures... https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
When they start moving they move like herd. No common sense at all
Stocks surge as virus slow down
https://www.nytimes.com/subscription?campaignId=78R87
herd mentality.. My thoughts exactly ..Dows ++ 700s points opening now barely +1%
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KutXyPEEbQs
Herd mentality ? NAH......
Some large trade houses, hedge funds and the ALGO's.
Fishing the bottoms across the sectors in equity and bonds. Stay for 10 or 15 minutes and move.
= nice day for the longs and shorts, if one is in the right place at the right time.
Just wait until jobs reports/unemployment/earning outings next few weeks, we maybe having another 3-9% down days
In a blink of an eye, many will start writing next wk recession maybe ceasing and perhaps new bull market starting
'No One Wants to Call Canada’s 21% Stock Surge a Bull Market
S&P/TSX Composite has rallied at the fastest pace on record
Economic pain is just getting started as shutdowns take a toll
As quickly as the Canadian stock market fell into a bear market, it has even more rapidly surged 21% from its bottom. Yet, few are willing to call the rally by its technical definition -- a bull market.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-06/no-one-wants-to-call-canada-s-21-stock-surge-a-bull-market'
[same maybe said of Oil/EEM or US market]
(Just playing devil's advocate here, I can't believe this either. But everyone I know and every analyst I read has been saying not to trust this rally, so maybe it's just the old stocks climb a wall of worry story.)