Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Good show Catch. We didn't bleed any this week either with rebound in commodities and stocks climbing late. Hey, could you bond enthusiasts maybe push the ten year up a little higher? Local bank now under 3.9% fixed-rate on 15 year re-fi. If gets down under 3.5 we might jump, figuring could do alot better than that investing over 15 years --- unless the world really is about to end. Dont mean to hijack your thread. Just trying to view this bond bonanza from the other side of the fence. Take care.
Me gots a little free time before the short journey to Bay City for the wedding. You're looking to re-fi, eh??? And good to your house, too; to stay ahead of the markets this past week.
And about that 10 year bond....don't know. I joked about the 10 year at 2.9% a few weeks ago; but I suspect only some more real grief from something silly in the world could push to this lower yield. Pretty much all is known about the Greek monetary basket case; and I figure all of that is already factored into the bond numbers.
It appears some of the other bond sectors are just kinda riding along; and I still feel that this is not unlike the broad equity areas of maximum head scratching and just what will become of the markets this year. As noted at FA in the early part of the year; that this may be a most trying year to pull a good return on one's money. There is gonna be a shift in our money futures; WE all just have to attempt to master the when and where, eh???
Will be taking a closer look next week, but I am not pleased about sitting on 15% of our money in a cash acct. Likely moves will be to Fido short term bond fund (FSHBX) and Fido Real Estate Income (FRIFX) which is about 50% real estate bonds. Not that the housing market is great now and is at least several years away from any kind of health, not unlike the financial sectors that hold real estate. BUT, the FRIFX will place some money from the bonds and although single housing stinks; folks are renting and some well placed moves by fund mgrs may benefit.
As a side note......if one could determine the MI weather for the next 4 months; it appears RICE in MI would be a good cash crop!!!
Hope your immediate area finds your safe from any flooding. We are on relatively high ground and lots of other folks would have water flooding before us. But, the sump pump has been very busy.
"What are your plans when the rates starting to creep up in this low return environment?"""
>>>>>The ultimate question, yes?
The simple answer is to continue to monitor whether the NAV's of the "more middle of the road" bond funds start to flat line and attempt to travel south.
As for the HY/HI bond funds; they may travel along without problems, barring a nasty economy going forward which could put pressure on the ability of companies who have issued HY bonds to operate and not actually default on the bonds. I do believe there would be enough early warning of this situation.
U.S. gov't bonds and yields...may be another story. We do currently hold one fund that has more exposure to this area vs the other bond funds; and I do look at gov't. bond funds to get some ideas as to direction of NAV's/yields.
I/we are not bond folks at heart; over many years. But we also consider as to the speed of recovery in the U.S. and if the economy flatlines; bonds may well hold their ground with a touch of being in the right equity sectors for some extra portfolio push. Which would those be? Good question, eh?
As to a flatline economy; I toss around the historical path of the "great" depression and that there may another bump or two in our future. And as related to some bond types; one has seen during the past year, that U.S. Treasury issues are still considered to be the safe haven "run to" area in times of trouble.
And those who are flipping feelings about the stability of Greece from one day to the next....holly crap; the poor country has very serious money problems that plague many holders of their debt in the EU. I wouldn't like this either if I were the German gov't. or a German citizen. The whole scenario is just about a no winners allowed game.
I can see that if one placed a "onion skin paper" Greek bond upon a pool of quick sand in Greece, that the paper bond would actually sink away into the sand.
DEE-NILE......the IMF, EU and a bunch of others are all playing a touchy feely game with all of this. The sooner that there are admissions and real stress tests of global banks and holding companies, the sooner any healing may begin. BUT, I do understand the "buying time" thing. All of this makes for a very rough game for we "retail" investors.
While inflation is here in some sectors, I can not see wage inflation anytime soon; and IF things don't move along, I can also see deflation and/or stagflation.
A very healthy finance sector would be a sweet thing to fine for the healing process; but at least in this country, until the housing sector starts to move into postivie territory to help the balance sheets of the 1'000's of sm/mid size banks there will be continued stress.
None of this rambling precludes the fact that the traders will stop moving in and out of their favorite playgrounds of money; but some of this I feel presents false hopes of real healings. I also can not see China NOT stepping into any and every commodity when the pricing becomes low enough for a buy opportunity.
Other than some of the above, we really don't have much to study.....writing this with a big smile on my face. Today, May 31 is a fine example....2-30 year Treasury yields down again, and the broad indexes up 1%......plainly some traders or otherwise who all do not agree on the forward directions.
I believe the "unwind" is still taking place in this country and things may take a few more years to get sorted out...........at least, relative to "Jane and Joe Public". Although there are still spenders in the state of MI, going to restaurants and related in our area.
Well, I had better quit this; as I am not sure if I have written anything in any order or thought pattern.......too much outside and very HOT here today.....maybe me brain is a bit on the scattered side right now.
Comments
Me gots a little free time before the short journey to Bay City for the wedding. You're looking to re-fi, eh??? And good to your house, too; to stay ahead of the markets this past week.
And about that 10 year bond....don't know. I joked about the 10 year at 2.9% a few weeks ago; but I suspect only some more real grief from something silly in the world could push to this lower yield. Pretty much all is known about the Greek monetary basket case; and I figure all of that is already factored into the bond numbers.
It appears some of the other bond sectors are just kinda riding along; and I still feel that this is not unlike the broad equity areas of maximum head scratching and just what will become of the markets this year. As noted at FA in the early part of the year; that this may be a most trying year to pull a good return on one's money. There is gonna be a shift in our money futures; WE all just have to attempt to master the when and where, eh???
Will be taking a closer look next week, but I am not pleased about sitting on 15% of our money in a cash acct. Likely moves will be to Fido short term bond fund (FSHBX) and Fido Real Estate Income (FRIFX) which is about 50% real estate bonds. Not that the housing market is great now and is at least several years away from any kind of health, not unlike the financial sectors that hold real estate. BUT, the FRIFX will place some money from the bonds and although single housing stinks; folks are renting and some well placed moves by fund mgrs may benefit.
As a side note......if one could determine the MI weather for the next 4 months; it appears RICE in MI would be a good cash crop!!!
Hope your immediate area finds your safe from any flooding. We are on relatively high ground and lots of other folks would have water flooding before us. But, the sump pump has been very busy.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch
"What are your plans when the rates starting to creep up in this low return environment?"""
>>>>>The ultimate question, yes?
The simple answer is to continue to monitor whether the NAV's of the "more middle of the road" bond funds start to flat line and attempt to travel south.
As for the HY/HI bond funds; they may travel along without problems, barring a nasty economy going forward which could put pressure on the ability of companies who have issued HY bonds to operate and not actually default on the bonds. I do believe there would be enough early warning of this situation.
U.S. gov't bonds and yields...may be another story. We do currently hold one fund that has more exposure to this area vs the other bond funds; and I do look at gov't. bond funds to get some ideas as to direction of NAV's/yields.
I/we are not bond folks at heart; over many years. But we also consider as to the speed of recovery in the U.S. and if the economy flatlines; bonds may well hold their ground with a touch of being in the right equity sectors for some extra portfolio push. Which would those be? Good question, eh?
As to a flatline economy; I toss around the historical path of the "great" depression and that there may another bump or two in our future. And as related to some bond types; one has seen during the past year, that U.S. Treasury issues are still considered to be the safe haven "run to" area in times of trouble.
And those who are flipping feelings about the stability of Greece from one day to the next....holly crap; the poor country has very serious money problems that plague many holders of their debt in the EU. I wouldn't like this either if I were the German gov't. or a German citizen. The whole scenario is just about a no winners allowed game.
I can see that if one placed a "onion skin paper" Greek bond upon a pool of quick sand in Greece, that the paper bond would actually sink away into the sand.
DEE-NILE......the IMF, EU and a bunch of others are all playing a touchy feely game with all of this. The sooner that there are admissions and real stress tests of global banks and holding companies, the sooner any healing may begin. BUT, I do understand the "buying time" thing. All of this makes for a very rough game for we "retail" investors.
While inflation is here in some sectors, I can not see wage inflation anytime soon; and IF things don't move along, I can also see deflation and/or stagflation.
A very healthy finance sector would be a sweet thing to fine for the healing process; but at least in this country, until the housing sector starts to move into postivie territory to help the balance sheets of the 1'000's of sm/mid size banks there will be continued stress.
None of this rambling precludes the fact that the traders will stop moving in and out of their favorite playgrounds of money; but some of this I feel presents false hopes of real healings. I also can not see China NOT stepping into any and every commodity when the pricing becomes low enough for a buy opportunity.
Other than some of the above, we really don't have much to study.....writing this with a big smile on my face. Today, May 31 is a fine example....2-30 year Treasury yields down again, and the broad indexes up 1%......plainly some traders or otherwise who all do not agree on the forward directions.
I believe the "unwind" is still taking place in this country and things may take a few more years to get sorted out...........at least, relative to "Jane and Joe Public". Although there are still spenders in the state of MI, going to restaurants and related in our area.
Well, I had better quit this; as I am not sure if I have written anything in any order or thought pattern.......too much outside and very HOT here today.....maybe me brain is a bit on the scattered side right now.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch