Hussman: "I turned a solid reputation to Jell-O"

hank

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130211.htm

Whenever your feeling a bit down over your investment return to date, take cheer in comparing whatever you've grubbed out to John Hussman's record. HSGFX down another 3.27% YTD.

I agree, however, with his opening remarks. In essence: there's alota giddiness right now and the euphoria may signal a time for increased caution while anticipating a pullback. On the "broken-clock" hypothesis, the guru's been wrong for about 10 of the clock's 12 strokes. Reckon the clock's reading about 11:50 AM - at the moment. Come high noon and John will be due to have a market-beating year.

Couple fund notes: OAKBX's off to a better than expected start this this year (+4.6%) with the chart turning around enough from last to give you whiplash. TRBUX, Price's new ultra-short hasn't flinched one-cent from its opening $5 share price in December, though I'll concede its return is also ultra low - still better than money market funds - which it's designed to compete with.

MikeM

Hi Hank. I'm guessing you feel pretty good about dropping HSGFX. I know I do. I got out around the '09-'10 period. I think from this fund, I learned if results don't match a managers philosophy, the philosophy isn't worth investing in. As another post I read today said, you learn from your mistakes, and losses can make you a better investor. I learned I don't like "the idea" of long/short or market neutral funds.

scott

Hussman has mentioned money printing before a couple of times in his letters, but continues to seem to not understand the effect of it, nor does he seem to understand the desire by central banks to cause inflation (or thinks they're not capable. Well...) Continue to like L/S funds a great deal, but am more partial to the newer generation, which have greater flexibility with dialing up/down risk. HSGFX also should be classified as a mkt neutral fund, not l/s.

hank

Reply to @MikeM: Yeah - have to scratch my head over the promises vs performance there. As a very conservative investor, I'm willing to hang-with a niche fund in the interest of diversification. LONG AS it doesn't loose money consistently. Doesn't need great returns - just needs to do at least as well as a money market fund over 1-3 year spans while providing additional downside protection.

Much depends with LS or hedged funds on a manager's timing skills, I think most of us are better off making our own calls. In addition, these guys have to make their calls while also managing large inflows or outflows, putting them at a disadvantage to individuals. (But, in fairness, same's true of most funds.)

Been out of HSGFX one year. My cash positions are 12% ahead of what the fund achieved over that time. And, we all know the math works against you when attempting to recoup losses. That 12% one year loss now requires a positive 13.7% return just to get back to even for each $1,000 invested a year ago. ($880 x 1.137 = $10000.56)

Charles

Good grief, I've never read one of his letters before:

Put simply, ignoring the messenger because of the challenges we faced in the most recent cycle, particularly our self-imposed stress-testing, is not a valid reason to dismiss the hostile conditions that investors face at present.

He seems almost defiant in his conviction, even after the apology.

Here's Morningstar performance comparison against couple other notables...



All three have beaten the market over their lifetimes...HSGFX by pretty healthy amount. But it's certainly been trending wrong way for a while now.

Mark

I'm somewhat astounded (but not really) that this dog still has $1.2 billion in assets under management despite negative returns for 1,3 and 5-yr time periods and barely ekeing out a gain over 10-yrs. Furthermore it has under performed close to 98% of the funds in it's category. Man did I choose the wrong career for my Ph.D studies.