"Future Trends" Investing

bee

I thought I would introduce a MFO discussion thread centered on "Future Trends". Being early to a trend investment often requires patience, but for a small portion of one's portfolio it can also be a good alpha component long term.

Natural Gas as a feed stock to Hydrogen Fuel Cells and its future impact onTransportation:

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles projected to be less expensive to run than battery electric and internal combustion engine vehicles within 10-years

White Paper
fueling-the-future-of-mobility-en-200101.pdf

Developing hydrogen fueling infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles: A status update
/Hydrogen-infrastructure-status-update_ICCT-briefing_04102017_vF.pdf

bee

The strange world of carbon credits:

Fiat will effectively fund Tesla’s German factory, Baird says

While Fiat Chrysler would otherwise struggle to meet new carbon-dioxide emissions standards in Europe, the so-called open-pool option available in the European Union allows automakers to group their fleets together to meet targets. Compliance has gotten harder for automakers as consumers have shifted toward gasoline cars, which emit comparatively more CO2, following Volkswagen AG’s diesel-emissions scandal that first erupted in 2015.

Article:
/fiat-will-effectively-fund-teslas-german-factory

bee

Note to self:
1. Deep Learning — From Vision to Language
2. Streaming Media — The Primary Technology Behind Content Distribution
3. Electric Vehicles — Faster Adoption Than Most Think
4. Automation — Increased Productivity and More Jobs
5. 3D Printing — An Underestimated Technology
6. Autonomous Ridehailing — The Future of Transportation
7. Aerial Drones — A Cost Saver and Potential Life Saver
8. Next Generation DNA Sequencing — The Transformation of Oncology
9. Biotech R&D Efficiency — The Convergence of Technologies in Healthcare
10.Digital Wallets — The Transformation of Banking
11.Bitcoin — An Evolution of Monetary Systems

Mark

I think that this is a great and exciting topic @bee but I'm not adequately versed in most of them to comment intelligently. I think that soon enough, if not already, Nasdaq will be the market of choice vs. the S&P 500 which gets everyone all excited. We're seeing it already in AI, robotics and automation all of which require tech and chips in particular. Extend that to automobiles, screened refrigerators and other every day appliances with touch screens instead of buttons and dials and it's just nuts. I don't even want many of these so-called improvements(?) but they're going to be there whether I want them or not. Streaming media is here to stay and I barely know how to turn on a tv/monitor anymore. Oddly enough, of all the items that you mentioned I'm most familiar with DNA sequencing.

Two of your items I will resist as long as possible, Digital Wallets and Bitcoin. I just think that they are too prone to hacking (and yes I'm aware that so are the others) and I just don't have much use for them. Maybe I'm already an adopter though because I rarely use cash these day. I guess we'll see.

Sven

I swear we saw a Bitcoin machine in a shopping mall lately. Someone ask recently if the machines are good investment for retirement - dangerous.

Mark

Bitcoin machines are common at major airports as well.

Old_Joe

@Sven- Yes, I have the same feeling... I believe that I also saw one at a mall or Safeway market recently, chuckled to myself, and promptly forgot all about it.

Rbrt

Thanks for the links in the original post, Bee. I’ve only started to absorb it but I look forward to considering the possibilities. I ask that if you see volume 2 “Hydrogen and fuel cell applications now and future” and/or volume 3 - please let us know. One aspect of the hydrogen future that I find intriguing is the idea of taking electricity that is generated at near zero marginal costs and using it to create hydrogen. (The electricity source could be solar on a sunny, cool day but could also be a nuclear plant that needs to run at full capacity on a that same day.) The Deloitte document makes mention of this process, which I think is detailed here:

https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/doe-technical-targets-hydrogen-production-photoelectrochemical-water-splitting

Rbrt

bee

@Rbrt...Converting wind, sun, ocean waves energy into hydrogen energy has entropy (energy loss) , but is zero carbon. The green in us loves this. The other green (money) often drives or stalls this evolution. Old technology companies don't want to just roll over when new technology becomes viable. If their pockets are deep enough they will even buy up the patents and technology and shelve it from coming to market.

Fuel cells and hydrogen energy allows for the convenience of energy storage and portability both lacking in many direct energy systems.

As an investor identifying and differentiating between the tools and the resource like the gold mine is important. Do you want to own the companies that supply the tools (the picks & shovels), or the mine (the energy resource)?

bee

The trend here will continue...Bad News travels 10X faster than good news.

This articles points to gradual improvements (that are not necessarily news worthy) as the main reason for optimism in the markets today:
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/01/08/gradual-improvements-redux/

bee

I-phone assembler (Foxconn) plan joint Internet-Connected Electric Car project with Fiat:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-fiat-chrysler-hon-hai-china/fiat-chrysler-and-foxconn-plan-chinese-electric-vehicle-joint-venture-idUKKBN1ZF2LL

bee

From Wealthtrack:

WABAC

I am counting on small and midcap funds from Parnassus and Boston Trust Walden to help identify those up and comers.

ESG isn't going away.

WABAC

bee said:

As an investor identifying and differentiating between the tools and the resource like the gold mine is important. Do you want to own the companies that supply the tools (the picks & shovels), or the mine (the energy resource)?

A lot of money was made in California selling the necessities to people looking for gold.

I don't know if that carries over into the world you are describing with your analogy. But it might not hurt to think about.