Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Investor's linked article mentions the new T Rowe Price Emerging Markets Local Currency fund. Anybody care to contrast this new offering with Price's existing EM bond fund? Is it simply that they use currency hedging in the old fund and wont hedge in the new? Or is there more to this story?
Investors are feeling confident again. And why not, the Fed has fixed the game for us. And yet, we all intuitively know that using hocus pocus and other weird science to fix the game can't work for an extended period. The Piper will call. For over two years now, these Commentaries have suggested that the government's attempts to: borrow our way out of debt; spend our way to fiscal order; and "print" our way to prosperity; will prove to be a short-term positive for common stocks and commodities, bad for cash, and disastrous for long term bonds. We hereby strongly reiterate our negative view of long term bonds, and believe that it is noteworthy that Warren Buffet and "Bond King" Bill Gross have been publically espousing similar views.
{...}
Is inflation good or bad for stocks? Yes-is our answer. Stocks represent ownership claims on businesses, many of which possess real, tangible wealth. As people continue to lose faith in our eroding, irredeemable, paper currencies they will continue to invest in perceived stores of wealth, including common stocks. There is a reason that Mr. Buffett bought a railroad at a premium valuation to what he might have paid in the past. Lubrizol appears to be even more of a stretch. He is increasingly vocal as to his concerns about cash.
Another wonderful attribute of stocks-many companies offer diversification across countries, currencies and businesses. This benefit cannot be overstated.
{...}
But, to finally get to the point of all of this build up, the public has once again stampeded into the stocks of their favorite companies, without regard to price. We believe that this has created a dangerous "Contemporary Nifty-Fifty."
{...}
With that in mind, Tradewinds continues to hold a portfolio of businesses that tend to meet the needs of the world's growing population, have a competitive advantage over other companies, and are expected to sustainably do so in the future. As always, Tradewinds insists that our stocks trade sufficiently below our estimate of their intrinsic value.
{...}
When discounting future cash flows, the "value" of that cash at the time it is received in the future should be in the forefront of peoples' minds. Fiat currencies and bonds are somebody's liability. Governments' ability to make good on these obligations is imperative. In light of the current, precarious situation of most issuers of paper currency and sovereign bonds, Tradewinds prefers to own good business franchises and tangible wealth.
Comments
This is significant news since Robert Gardiner is probably the best fund manager at Wasatch.
Royce Funds - Exploring Global Small-Caps
Indonesia and Malaysia: Uncovering Quality in Southeast Asia
http://www.roycefunds.com/News/global/2011/0523-indonesia-malaysia-uncovering-quality-in-southeast-asia.asp
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Dividends Make a A World of Difference in Global Markets
http://www.roycefunds.com/News/Commentary/2011/0515-david-nadel-global-dividends.asp
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Global Fund Leaders Rack Up Big Gains
http://www.onwallstreet.com/ows_issues/2011_5/global-fund-leaders-rack-up-big-gains-2672890-1.html?zkPrintable=true
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Weird Science - May 2011
Nuveen Tradewinds, David Iben
http://www.nuveen.com/Home/Documents/Default.aspx?fileId=53168
Excerpts:
Investors are feeling confident again. And why not, the Fed has fixed the game for us. And yet, we all intuitively know that using hocus pocus and other weird science to fix the game can't work for an extended period. The Piper will call. For over two years now, these Commentaries have suggested that the government's attempts to: borrow our way out of debt; spend our way to fiscal order; and "print" our way to prosperity; will prove to be a short-term positive for common stocks and commodities, bad for cash, and disastrous for long term bonds. We hereby strongly reiterate our negative view of long term bonds, and believe that it is noteworthy that Warren Buffet and "Bond King" Bill Gross have been publically espousing similar views.
{...}
Is inflation good or bad for stocks? Yes-is our answer. Stocks represent ownership claims on businesses, many of which possess real, tangible wealth. As people continue to lose faith in our eroding, irredeemable, paper currencies they will continue to invest in perceived stores of wealth, including common stocks. There is a reason that Mr. Buffett bought a railroad at a premium valuation to what he might have paid in the past. Lubrizol appears to be even more of a stretch. He is increasingly vocal as to his concerns about cash.
Another wonderful attribute of stocks-many companies offer diversification across countries, currencies and businesses. This benefit cannot be overstated.
{...}
But, to finally get to the point of all of this build up, the public has once again stampeded into the stocks of their favorite companies, without regard to price. We believe that this has created a dangerous "Contemporary Nifty-Fifty."
{...}
With that in mind, Tradewinds continues to hold a portfolio of businesses that tend to meet the needs of the world's growing population, have a competitive advantage over other companies, and are expected to sustainably do so in the future. As always, Tradewinds insists that our stocks trade sufficiently below our estimate of their intrinsic value.
{...}
When discounting future cash flows, the "value" of that cash at the time it is received in the future should be in the forefront of peoples' minds. Fiat currencies and bonds are somebody's liability. Governments' ability to make good on these obligations is imperative. In light of the current, precarious situation of most issuers of paper currency and sovereign bonds, Tradewinds prefers to own good business franchises and tangible wealth.