FYI: Everyone loves a good story, and the one investors are telling themselves now is a doozy. The problem? It’s based only partly on reality.
If you believe the current narrative, everything is right with the world. By cutting interest rates three times, the Federal Reserve has averted a recession. And with the U.S. and China slowly making progress on a trade deal, capital spending could revive and boost the economy. And right on time, the S&P 500 index hit a new all-time high, seemingly confirming this rosy narrative.
That is one way of looking at it. But that narrative papers over just how weak the economic data have become. Even worse, investors appear to have thrown caution to the wind as they load up on stocks out of fear of missing out.