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Jim Grant Is a Wall Street Cult Hero. Does It Matter If He’s Often Wrong?
A legend in investing - for better or worse. (Perhaps lucky he never started his own mutual fund.)
I enjoy listening to Grant occasionally and many in investing still respect him. Could it be that as a macro-economics “structural engineer” he understands the necessary “foundation” for a healthy economy and sound markets, based on real and enduring value? And, most investors today are looking at the more ephemeral surface features (paint color, landscaping, number of baths / sun-decks)?
I don’t know. But Grant makes too much sense to be ignored completely. And anyone who views recent market valuations, relationships among asset classes, interest rates as “normal” or enduring probably doesn’t have a very good grounding in history. As far as his “wrong” calls, Grant’s got lots of company - among them some very astute intelligent observers.
Interest rates won't be hiked until 2013 Goldman Sachs While interest rates won't move until 2013, the yield on the U.S. 10-year will rise from 3.0% to 3.75% by the end of 2011, and 4.25% by Q4 2012.
The above forecast by GS, versus what happened, caused some serious winners and losers, depending on where one was invested or NOT in bonds.
@hank Mostly agree with you regarding Mr. Grant. Have read him over the years, but don't find I would have made more money following his thoughts. We investors have our luck periods, sprinkled with some actual properly thinking and observations, including power houses like Goldman Sachs.
I remain, "this time is different."
As of recent, I'm still trying to get my head around how the "repo transactions" sector functions and statements from those who understand this area regarding current interventions by our Fed. reserve system.
Comments
I enjoy listening to Grant occasionally and many in investing still respect him. Could it be that as a macro-economics “structural engineer” he understands the necessary “foundation” for a healthy economy and sound markets, based on real and enduring value? And, most investors today are looking at the more ephemeral surface features (paint color, landscaping, number of baths / sun-decks)?
I don’t know. But Grant makes too much sense to be ignored completely. And anyone who views recent market valuations, relationships among asset classes, interest rates as “normal” or enduring probably doesn’t have a very good grounding in history. As far as his “wrong” calls, Grant’s got lots of company - among them some very astute intelligent observers.
Part of GS forward forecast for markets in 2011
Interest rates won't be hiked until 2013
Goldman Sachs
While interest rates won't move until 2013, the yield on the U.S. 10-year will rise from 3.0% to 3.75% by the end of 2011, and 4.25% by Q4 2012.
>>>10 year yields below
--- Jan. 2011 @3.4%
--- Jan. 2012 @1.9%
--- Jan. 2013 @1.9%
--- Jan. 2014 @3.0%
--- Jan. 2015 @2.0%
--- Sep. 19, 2019 @1.78%
The above forecast by GS, versus what happened, caused some serious winners and losers, depending on where one was invested or NOT in bonds.
@hank
Mostly agree with you regarding Mr. Grant. Have read him over the years, but don't find I would have made more money following his thoughts.
We investors have our luck periods, sprinkled with some actual properly thinking and observations, including power houses like Goldman Sachs.
I remain, "this time is different."
As of recent, I'm still trying to get my head around how the "repo transactions" sector functions and statements from those who understand this area regarding current interventions by our Fed. reserve system.
Have a good remainder.
Catch