FYI: Scott Minerd (Guggenheim) weighs in on whether or not the “insurance cuts” the Federal Reserve is in the process of executing have any real efficacy historically. He finds that the usage of rate cuts during the late stages of an expansion have a mixed record – sometimes they’ve been able to put off a recession but mostly they haven’t…
The historical evidence is mixed on this issue. While there have been two notable periods in the 1990s where rate cuts helped avoid—or at least delay—a recession, we also know that the Fed was cutting rates in advance of the last three recessions.
Regards,
Ted
