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1. Buying. A lot depends on what you're looking at, who you are, investing time horizon, etc, but I think it's a time to add.
2. CNBC anchors are like realtors - they're never going to tell you it's a bad time to buy stocks. Jim Rogers called CNBC a "PR firm for the stock market." Tice certainly hasn't been on the network in ages, but I think even when he appeared, the anchors would make sour faces. People can disagree with Rogers, but he's had instances where he at least argues back with anchors versus the "yes people" who are just talking heads. I haven't watched CNBC in several months and ... it's nice.
3. Never owned a Hussman fund. The more I look at Hussman's funds, I'm glad I haven't - NOT because I don't fundamentally agree with a lot he has to say or because I don't like alternative funds, but mainly because the strategy the fund uses seems overly complicated and seems to go against - to some degree - the manager's own statements.
Rather than the idea of hedging the entire value of the portfolio by put options, why not just go heavily cash and a few consumer staples and similar companies. If Hussman is as bearish as he is, why have the stock exposure he does? The fund is heavily (entirely?) hedged, but 71% of the portfolio is in stocks. I'd be very curious to see what HSGFX's performance would have been the last couple of years if it wasn't entirely hedged with put options.
4. I agree and that's why I'm not really adding much here. However, as much as I dislike aspects of Buffett, the phrase that I've become more fond of recently from Buffett is "Don't buy anything you wouldn't be comfortable holding if the market closed for 10 years."
Let me start by reminding us all of what we are already aware of: market fundamentals are "out the window." This is a "juiced" and skewed Market, these days. And as for buying, well, the train's already left the station. If you buy, you'll have to hope and expect new record highs in the indices and in your particular holdings. ...Bonds? Mine are stumbling and slumping, but I'm not making changes. I'm riding the beast, long-term, because I'm satisfied with my fund choices. When THAT'S the case, what other option could be any BETTER? Note: I found it strange that small-cap index Russell 2K fell substantially today, but the small-cap I own and a couple of others I track ROSE on the day. Go figure: MSCFX, PRSVX and OTCFX.
"And as for buying, well, the train's already left the station. If you buy, you'll have to hope and expect new record highs in the indices and in your particular holdings."
I think that's a good way to put it, or you have a really long-term view and hopefully are in things that pay a dividend for you to wait in the meantime.
Max, you have some very good small caps with MSCFX PRSVX and OTCFX. I have only one small cap FSCRX and it compares very favorably to your three.
I am looking for a good midcap fund. I have ARTMX Artisan Mid Cap. It has done well and I plan on keeping it. Not much is spoken about midcap as compared to small and large but I think that will change.
You did well with that selection, it looks like! I used to own PRSVX. Truthfully, I just got BORED with it. I rolled it into PREMX and get a bigger monthly dividend now. (But I'm reinvesting all of that, still.) And I suppose I got impatient with PRSVX, waiting for it to climb. But for a couple of years, at least, it sat still, following the '08 Crash---for which no one has gone to jail, yet! I still track it, with OTCFX because I put a buddy into those two. But oops! D-i-v-o-r-c-e is upon him, so transferred the OTCFX of his into PRASX. (403b, so we're keeping it in TRP.) The one, single small-cap I own now was the first listed: MSCFX. Just since last April, 2012.
Comments
2. CNBC anchors are like realtors - they're never going to tell you it's a bad time to buy stocks. Jim Rogers called CNBC a "PR firm for the stock market." Tice certainly hasn't been on the network in ages, but I think even when he appeared, the anchors would make sour faces. People can disagree with Rogers, but he's had instances where he at least argues back with anchors versus the "yes people" who are just talking heads. I haven't watched CNBC in several months and ... it's nice.
3. Never owned a Hussman fund. The more I look at Hussman's funds, I'm glad I haven't - NOT because I don't fundamentally agree with a lot he has to say or because I don't like alternative funds, but mainly because the strategy the fund uses seems overly complicated and seems to go against - to some degree - the manager's own statements.
Rather than the idea of hedging the entire value of the portfolio by put options, why not just go heavily cash and a few consumer staples and similar companies. If Hussman is as bearish as he is, why have the stock exposure he does? The fund is heavily (entirely?) hedged, but 71% of the portfolio is in stocks. I'd be very curious to see what HSGFX's performance would have been the last couple of years if it wasn't entirely hedged with put options.
4. I agree and that's why I'm not really adding much here. However, as much as I dislike aspects of Buffett, the phrase that I've become more fond of recently from Buffett is "Don't buy anything you wouldn't be comfortable holding if the market closed for 10 years."
5. Not making any predictions on bonds.
I think that's a good way to put it, or you have a really long-term view and hopefully are in things that pay a dividend for you to wait in the meantime.
I am looking for a good midcap fund. I have ARTMX Artisan Mid Cap. It has done well and I plan on keeping it.
Not much is spoken about midcap as compared to small and large but I think that will change.
prinx