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The Breakfast Briefing: Global Stocks Gain Ahead of Tariff Deadline

FYI: U.S. stock index futures were slightly higher Friday morning.

At around 03:45 a.m. ET, Dow futures rose 42 points, indicating a positive open of more than 63 points. Futures on the S&P and Nasdaq were both marginally higher, reversing earlier losses.

Market focus is largely attuned to global trade developments, after President Donald Trump said that some trade discussions had taken place on Thursday, with more scheduled over the coming weeks.

• Treasury yields edge up

• Tariffs to be implemented over weekend

• Europe stocks rise, Asia mixed

Global stocks mostly gained at the end of a week marked by renewed optimism around U.S.-China trade relations despite impending new tariffs.

The Stoxx Europe 600 opened up 0.6%, with the U.K.’s FTSE up 0.3% and the German DAX up 0.7%.

The gains in Europe came after weak German retail sales for July reinforced expectations for a strong stimulus package from the European Central Bank, said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst for CMC Markets. Retail sales fell 2.2%, more than analysts expected.

Government bond yields edged higher, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury at 1.537%, from 1.520% Thursday. The German 10-year bund was yielding minus 0.688% on Friday.

Following the U.S. stock rally Thursday, most Asian indexes outside of China advanced, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.2% and South Korea’s Kospi up 1.8%. The Shanghai Composite edged down 0.2% and stocks in Shenzhen slipped 0.7%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was mostly flat, but remained on pace for one of its worst monthly drops in years, down 7% in August on the last trading day of the month. Hong Kong stocks have been weighed by intensifying protests which have hurt the local economy and prompted concerns about a looming recession. In comparison, benchmark stock indexes in mainland China, South Korea and Japan are down 1%-4% in August.

The U.S. Commerce Department will release figures on July personal income and spending later Friday. Americans’ spending moderated slightly in June but remained strong, a sign that high consumer confidence and low unemployment fueled economic growth. Incomes also rose. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast personal income growth of 0.3% in July and consumer spending gains of 0.5%.

Canada will also release its June gross domestic product figures, which track broad activity in goods and services in the economy. In May, it climbed 0.2% from the prior month, a slowdown from months prior.

In commodities, Brent crude oil fell 0.4% to $60.28 a barrel.
Regards,
Ted

WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-gain-ahead-of-tariff-deadline-11567152245

Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-29/asia-stocks-poised-to-gain-amid-trade-optimism-markets-wrap?srnd=premium

IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-stock-market-rally-test-apple-stock-microsoft-stock-ulta-beauty-stock-workday-ambarella/

CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/stock-market-wall-street-in-focus-amid-us-china-trade-talks.html

U.K.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-stocks-uk-italy-graphic/a-tale-of-two-crises-london-and-milan-stocks-diverge-idUKKCN1VJ225

Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-stocks-extend-rally-as-real-estate-firms-surge-idUSKCN1VK0O7

Asia:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-gain-as-latest-trade-war-fears-subside-2019-08-29/print

Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/us-bonds-wall-street-in-focus-amid-renewed-trade-talk-hopes.html

Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/forex-markets-us-china-trade-war-in-focus.html

Oil:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/oil-markets-us-china-trade-war-global-economy-in-focus.html

Gold:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/gold-markets-us-china-trade-tensions-in-focus.html

Cuirrent Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
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