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Widely Followed Risk-Return Measures For Stock Portfolios Debunked: Sharpe Ratio/Sortino Ratio

FYI: Two financial ratios Wall Street uses to rate different portfolios’ risk-adjusted performances have come under sharp criticism, including from one of the ratio’s own inventors.

The better-known of the two, the Sharpe ratio, was first published in 1964 by William (Bill) Sharpe. It ranks portfolios by their “excess” return above holding low-yielding but safe Treasury bills. The ratio is adjusted for the amount a portfolio’s value deviates from a constant growth rate. In 1990, along with other economists, Sharpe won the Nobel Prize in Economics for this and additional formulas.

A competing measure, the Sortino ratio, was announced in 1980. Developed by Frank Sortino, then a finance professor at San Francisco State University, it was considered an improvement for several reasons.

Most notably, the Sortino ratio only counts a portfolio’s downside deviation against it. A portfolio is not penalized for upside surprises, which the Sharpe ratio does.

In a rather shocking turn of events, Sortino has turned against both the Sharpe ratio and the formula that bears his own name. He’s developed an entirely new risk-adjusted ranking system that shows promise.

In his latest book, “The Sortino Framework for Constructing Portfolios” (Elsevier), the now-retired professor announced an improved ratio named Desired Target Rate-alpha (DTR-a).

Sortino and his book’s collaborators ranked the risk-adjusted returns of scores of mutual funds using all three ratios. The results are eye-opening.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/widely-followed-risk-return-measure-for-stock-portfolios-is-debunked-after-55-years-2019-08-07/print

Comments

  • edited August 2019
    Sortino tracked whether funds with good recent performance would repeat that success in the coming year. The funds with the best DTR-a ratio repeated their outperformance in more than 40% of the cases. That was true for the Sharpe ratio only 23% of the time and the Sortino ratio only 22% of the time.
    Not exactly a ringing endorsement for any of these metrics.
  • @Charles- I'd be very interested in your opinions and commentary on this subject.

    Regards-
    OJ
  • I’ve been very suspect of these measures for a long time.
  • edited August 2019
    I think all modern port stats fall into the "past performance is not predictive" category, as in, why would we even think they would or could be predictive? It's about probabilities, not prediction, and even in that realm their utility depends on market, manager, and portfolio factors being at least fairly consistent in the future with what they've been over whatever past period (3y, 5y, etc.) we're looking at.

    Their utility is also limited to comparing funds with similar characteristics, e.g., within similar categories. Accept the limitations, and they can be plenty useful.
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