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Jeff Gundlach: Fed Will Be In "Panic Mode" When A Recession Hits
The 2-10 spread inverts months before a recession, he said, and then it steepens. It already inverted briefly, according to Gundlach.
“What you want to watch out for is the steepening to start,” he said. “It would increase the probability of a recession.”
This link might be a good way to follow the inversion and then the steepening between the 2 yr and 10 yr treasuries.
If you pull the chart's timeline out (slide as far left as possible) you can see the effects of inversion (spread below the zero line) and the steepening of spreads which often coincided with recessions (gray band areas of chart)
@Catch, sorta but not exactly. That chart's showing cumulative difference in yield movement, including a chunk of time the Fed was in tightening mode. I'm thinking more about the changes since early this year, roughly since the jawboning/tightening eased.
Once the rate-hike paradigm was essentially out of the way, I would've thought that ye olde market discounting mechanism would start to ease the front end (since the Fed's next move was likely to be a cut) quite a bit more than the back end, and so get close to wiping out the 3m/10y inversion. Though there have been some ups and downs, that hasn't happened; I've been watching, courtesy of figures from CNBC, on a regular basis, and the gap bounces around a bit but is hanging in there.
It reinforces to me that this dynamic of the bond market focusing on the widely reported, deteriorating global economic conditions, while the equity market plays FOMO, is truly persistent ... and insistent.
P.S. I've been taking a break from Gundlach. I think he jumped the shark with his 6% 10y prediction - even if you give him a few years to see if it happens.
When market crash everyone including trump panic not just the Feds lol.. Remember near end2008 when market swings 2000 pits in one day.. So much panic chaostic scene ...
@_catch. During volatile 2008 crash probably not 2000 pts swing my corrections but dows 1k up or down every day from 14k+until the bottom ~5.6k I think. . I remember Obama and Feds system pumped so much cash back then to keep market afloat... Everyone here /market/colleagues at work and of course @mfo fundalarm were in panic mode
Lucky kept everything intact in Tsp and private portfolio same did not sale.. Made Stella come back next few yrs
Thx to many experts /experienced old members at fundalarm including you of course The near retirees were selling pumping in cash and jumping off market in a hurried
So now I f you are 6mons to two yrs near retirement maybe very good idea to sell a large portion out of equities and keeps stuff in bonds cd fixed-income
@johnN You need to view msf's (above) link for a clear data picture related to your pronouncements. Also, what does your comment have to do with Mr. Obama? Whomever was president at the time was figure head only. The actions/power lay elsewhere at the time, for financial markets stability. So, you may choose a self test before reviewing the link(s) as to when was Mr. Obama elected and inaugurated; relative to the 2008 market melt. You then will be well prepared to discuss this area of recent financial history with co-workers, friends and family; who may not be well informed.
The below CNN time line is fairly well done for a brief overview of the market melt of 2008. A snippet time line, by date; of the market melt beginning Sept. 2008. Click "next" to move to the next date page.
Comments
If you pull the chart's timeline out (slide as far left as possible) you can see the effects of inversion (spread below the zero line) and the steepening of spreads which often coincided with recessions (gray band areas of chart)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
Chart should look like this with timeline extended:
https://www.screencast.com/t/m42EURlX
Does this chart provide a proper perspective, starting in Jan. 2018?
NOTE for all: this chart is yield, NOT pricing.
Once the rate-hike paradigm was essentially out of the way, I would've thought that ye olde market discounting mechanism would start to ease the front end (since the Fed's next move was likely to be a cut) quite a bit more than the back end, and so get close to wiping out the 3m/10y inversion. Though there have been some ups and downs, that hasn't happened; I've been watching, courtesy of figures from CNBC, on a regular basis, and the gap bounces around a bit but is hanging in there.
It reinforces to me that this dynamic of the bond market focusing on the widely reported, deteriorating global economic conditions, while the equity market plays FOMO, is truly persistent ... and insistent.
P.S. I've been taking a break from Gundlach. I think he jumped the shark with his 6% 10y prediction - even if you give him a few years to see if it happens.
...
Huh????? May 2008, 2,000 pt. swings.
Data please.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average#Largest_intraday_point_swings
Lucky kept everything intact in Tsp and private portfolio same did not sale.. Made Stella come back next few yrs
Thx to many experts /experienced old members at fundalarm including you of course
The near retirees were selling pumping in cash and jumping off market in a hurried
So now I f you are 6mons to two yrs near retirement maybe very good idea to sell a large portion out of equities and keeps stuff in bonds cd fixed-income
You need to view msf's (above) link for a clear data picture related to your pronouncements. Also, what does your comment have to do with Mr. Obama? Whomever was president at the time was figure head only. The actions/power lay elsewhere at the time, for financial markets stability.
So, you may choose a self test before reviewing the link(s) as to when was Mr. Obama elected and inaugurated; relative to the 2008 market melt. You then will be well prepared to discuss this area of recent financial history with co-workers, friends and family; who may not be well informed.
The below CNN time line is fairly well done for a brief overview of the market melt of 2008.
A snippet time line, by date; of the market melt beginning Sept. 2008. Click "next" to move to the next date page.