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Do Global Stocks Outperform US Treasury Bills?

FYI: We study compound returns to nearly 62,000 global common stocks during the 1990 to 2018 period, documenting that the majority, 56% of US stocks and 61% of non-US stocks, under perform one-month US Treasury bills over the full sample. Focusing on aggregate shareholder wealth creation measured in US dollars, we find that the top-performing 1.3% of firms account for the $US 44.7 trillion in global stock market wealth creation from 1990 to 2018. Outside the US, less than one percent of firms account for the $US 16.0 trillion in net wealth creation. These results highlight the practical implications of the fact that the distribution of long-run stock returns is strongly positively skewed.
Regards,
Ted
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3415739

Comments

  • Conclusion: "The result that the wealth created by stock market investing is largely attributable to positive outcomes to a relatively few stocks is relevant to the debate regarding active stock selection vs. the passive holding of broadly diversified stock indices. For those investors without a comparative advantage in identifying the few stocks that will create the most wealth (or in selecting a manager with the ability to do so) and without a substantial preference for positive skewness, the results reinforce the desirability of passive indexing. On the other hand, for the (presumably few) investors with the appropriate comparative advantage, the results highlight the degree to which successful stock selection can enhance wealth. Finally, the findings raise the question of whether existing industrial organization models of firm entry, growth, merger, competition, and failure can account for the observed degree of concentration in wealth creation, or whether new models are required."

    But can anyone else find an assertion in the paper about whether "Global Stocks Outperform US Treasury Bills?"
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