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Making predictions is always hazardous duty, yet we do it all the time when making investment decisions.
In the referenced article, I especially liked observation 12: “ Effort put into a prediction may increase confidence more than accuracy.“. Much truth in that statement. At various times we all fall into that inviting trap.
None of us have even near perfect decision records. The challenges and uncertainties dominate that decision. That is built into the nature of the problem. The best we can hope for is a winning forecasting record. Experts suffer from this same performance problem over time. In the short run we can be lucky, but luck evens out in longer timeframes. Here is a Link to a very nice summary article that provides expert prediction performance data:
The summary table did indeed surprise me. Among the experts examined, the highest correct prediction score was only 70%. Perhaps I should not say “only 70%”. On reflection, that’s not too bad a score. I wish my success record was that high! Decision making is a tough business.
Comments
Making predictions is always hazardous duty, yet we do it all the time when making investment decisions.
In the referenced article, I especially liked observation 12: “ Effort put into a prediction may increase confidence more than accuracy.“. Much truth in that statement. At various times we all fall into that inviting trap.
None of us have even near perfect decision records. The challenges and uncertainties dominate that decision. That is built into the nature of the problem. The best we can hope for is a winning forecasting record. Experts suffer from this same performance problem over time. In the short run we can be lucky, but luck evens out in longer timeframes. Here is a Link to a very nice summary article that provides expert prediction performance data:
https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
The summary table did indeed surprise me. Among the experts examined, the highest correct prediction score was only 70%. Perhaps I should not say “only 70%”. On reflection, that’s not too bad a score. I wish my success record was that high! Decision making is a tough business.
Best Wishes