FYI: The National Weather Service makes 76 billion meteorological observations a year and mobilizes computing power 10,000 times greater than the Dell on your desk, but its basic forecasting horizon is a week to 10 days. Yet economists, who deal not with rain drops but human beings and who make many fewer than 76 billion annual empirical observations, pretend to know what the 10-year Treasury will yield next year.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/jim-grant-the-trouble-with-austrian-centuries-51562354708
