That was the title of John Hussman's weekly commentary published March 9, 2009.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090309.htmHis (bearish) commentary was posted on the old Fund Alarm discussion board operated by Roy Weitz - and from what I can tell generated some favorable reaction. Of course that date, March 9, 2009, marks the end of the than prevailing bear and beginning of the now nearly 4-year old bull market.
Thanks to the Way Back Machine, I've been looking over a page from the old site which contains posts from the first half of March, 2009.
http://web.archive.org/web/20090315115853/http://fundalarm.com/wwwboard/wwwboard.htmlCouple obstacles exist to reading much into these snipets. Often, the question being discussed takes up so much space, it's hard to tell what a poster had to say. Also, I've had no luck in following the full links to threads, so what you see is what you get. Still, hopefully, a revealing snap-shot of the period.
In addition to Hussman's untimely call, a few other posts caught my attention. Some sum-up the desperation and fear felt by many back than. Others represent in hindsight remarkably good calls. Here's 10 fairly random samplings:
From bee on March 3 - "Loading up on Corporate bonds"
From Catch 22 on March 6 - "Scared Americans pulling bank acct. monies - a ? for this board"
From Irv on March 7 - "I'm still alive; broke, but still alive."
From John on March 7 - "OT When will the economy bottom out?"
From Ted on March 8. - "Dodge & Cox's Assets Cut in Half by Breathtakingly Bad Bets" (article)
From Ted on March 8 - "Is Now a Good Time to Begin Adding REITs to Your Portfolio?" (article)
From WhiteSoxWinner on March 10 - "Down 50% in 500 Days - Is the Bear Market Over?"
From Ted on March 11 - "Time to say Goodby to the Bear?" (article)
From Investor on March 11 - "Bloomberg: Grantham Urges Shift to Stocks Before 'Rigor Mortis' " (article)
From Old Joe on March 12 - "How Low Can the Stock Markets Go? Dr. Doom Knows All. Sees All, Tells All!" (article)
Comments
I have visited the Way - Back postings from time to time, too.
I recall the "bank account withdrawals" post.
After 6 months of continued nasty news reports about everything; I had continued to receive phone calls from friends and family members who were really concerned about the safety or access to their monies in some (not all) banks.
Some folks did withdraw monies down to the point of keeping an active acct. open, but containing only minimal dollars.
'Course, I don't know what they expected me to tell them during this period.
The mood of the day, however; is that there were a lot of very scared folks in this state (MI).
Everything of the comforts they had known supported for so many decades from the auto industry was crashing around them. The fate of the auto sector and every business that supported this area was on the chopping block. Many were still not aware of how much of that industry has already crashed and was changing (don't know how they missed that).
Michigan having been a massive consumer/consuming state full of toys (boats, snowmobiles, motorcycles, summer vacation homes, etc. (you name it) had had its consumer market place chopped to the ground.
Would there be any pension or healthcare plans remaining from the auto and related companies? Especially troubling for many; as they never had a need or plan about saving "other" monies.
The aftermath is still not gone. The unwind continues. Very deep cuts were made into the fabric of a life style that was, and will not be again, for many.
Seems like 2008/2009 was "so" long ago.
Thanks for the flashback.
Take care,
Catch
- Also ... a good place to note that posting an article does not necessarily mean you agree with the author or views expressed. I sometimes post articles I don't agree with, but think others might find of interest. Regards.