Bought Andersons (ANDE) in two parts starting at $35 and change in Mid-October (
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/index.php?p=/discussion/4327/open-ideas-thread/p1) and sold part for $43 and change and then the rest for $44 and change over the last week.
Added to Ivy Asset and Pimco Dividend/Income (PQIDX).
Otherwise, looking to add additional boring single names (Nestle, Coke, Bristol Meyers, etc) and more conservative funds. Not feeling like it's an appropriate time to go heavily into risk, although I do want to continue to have a good deal of equity exposure. Want to further emphasize dividend yield and a longer-term mentality.
Comments
I have already positioned my portfolio for 1Q2013 and I am waiting for the S&P 500 Index to reach 1500 at which time I plan to off load some of my equity ballast. I am looking for about an eight percent gain in the index this year so for the traders to make good money I feel the index will be news driven, form time-to-time, with pull backs occurring through the year. With this, I plan to sell the peaks and buy the valleys.
I compute the Index currently selling at a trailing P/E Ratio of 14.3 which is towards the low end of its normal range said by many to range form 14 to 16. So for those that are looking to add to their equity allocation the index seems to be close to be fairly valued at this time form my thoughts.
From a recent analysis of my portfolio thru Instant Xray, it bubbles at 15% cash, 30% domestic equity, 20% foreign equity, 25% bonds and 10% other.
I found the below linked article previously posted by Ted to be most informative as to where the go anywhere funds were looking. I own four of the funds referenced in the article so it was good to read about them. I have linked the article again for those that might have missed it. http://www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/399092?type=bloomberg
Owning a good number of macro driven funds sometimes there is just not much to do but to sit back and wait for the set up that I am looking for to occurr and then act on the positions that I manage myself (equity ballast).
Good Investing,
Skeeter
the Fidelity fund routinely tracks the xau index, the Vanguard more a basic materials fund, their performance markedly diverges.
'Take action now' bond fund reallocations since new years--
All of SGL, a UBS managed closed-end nonleveraged global income fund, for more RPHYX.
Seldom mentioned, SGL has outperformed GIM in recent years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SGL&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=gim
GIM was at a premium, SGL at its typical high single digit discount when acquired in '09,
took the recent rebound and spread compression as an exit opportunity.
Two thirds of MAINX for SUBFX, initial position after observing a few months, they seem to have mostly taken to the sidelines from recent reports. Hopefully paid-to-wait reduced risk havens in the event of a general bond market selloff. By any traditional measure bonds/fixed income are overvalued thanks to central engineering, perhaps it is different this time but if history serves guide that is not the way to bet. Good luck to all.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323717004578157152464486598.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323316804578161324169068746.html#printMode
A mini “exit strategy” is definitely in order – and it’s been awhile since the markets had to fret about a reversal of Fed accommodation. And, importantly, the longer “risk on” spurs global market excesses – the more pressing it will be for the Fed to act. Yet, ongoing “fiscal cliff” risks abound. Fed timidity raises the probabilities that an unleashed “risk on” finds an opening. And a scenario of runaway “risk on” - and a Fed some months down the road forced to reverse course - would play right into the “2013 fat tails, bi-polar outcome possibilities” thesis. Less hypothetical is today’s predicament that highly speculative global risk market behavior is dictated by expectations for ongoing extreme policy accommodation – although I suspect policymakers have little clarity on the future course of policy because they haven’t a clue as to what the future holds for a rather robust and unwieldy “risk on, risk off” speculative market Bubble Dynamic.
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10748
Fun fun fun til daddy takes the t-bill away.
So right now I am about 66% equities in total retirement portfolio, a few percentage more than last year despite doing some sideways moves.
I am doing marginal additions via 401k purchases. I still have to put 2012 Roth contributions for me and wife (after paying property taxes)
Ditto for another ASTON/River Road fund reviewed on MFO, Long-Short Fund ARLSX. I may wait here for the institutional class alluded to during the recent conference call.
Both options would be alternatives to some bond holdings in my portfolio.
Scott, you're going to laugh, but I recently bought Pandora P after its plunge. Quickly made about +10% and protected myself with a -6% limit stop...only to get stopped-out and subsequently watch it go up 30%!
I doubled-down on Bank of America BAC at end of last year. I believe it will double again over next couple years.
Thinking about shorting Staples SPLS as I simply don't see a future in its stores, which represent about third of its business. They have a decent dividend though, which props up stock price. If that wavers, however, watch out.
Finally, again I can hear you laughing now, I'm actually thinking of a speculative buy of Radio Shack RSH.
Sorry to hear that you missed the additional move - definitely not going to laugh, I give people all the credit for spotting opportunities and trying things like that and I'm always interested in hearing what people do like that, 'cause I always find it interesting. I actually like speculative buys and have done them in the past , but I think I'm just tired of having to watch things uber-closely (yeah, I could do stop orders, I suppose) and trying to figure out what's working *right now* and I've started moving towards longer-term holdings and looking for reasonable yield.
I totally have nothing against spec trades, but - as I noted in another thread, Buffett talked about only buying things you'd be comfortable with if the market closed for 10 years. I'm not to that point yet, but I'm really more focused on things I'd feel comfortable with for, say, five years?
I'm not going to laugh at you at all, what I laugh at is that I'm actually considering something like Johnson and Johnson. Certainly nothing I'd have thought about a year or two ago, but what's become more appealing is yield and having a portfolio of positions that is part risk (although offers some yield) and part dull (again, yield.)
I have a fairly sizable position in French-listed tech company Gemalto (GTOMY), which is a long-term speculative holding for me and probably the most speculative-in-nature single position I have.
The 3-D printing stocks interest me, but I can only make X amount of choices.
Given it being legalized in some states, I've pondered Medical Marijuana (MJNA), but I just haven't found a spot for it. Village Farms International is a Canadian hydroponic farming company (tomato, pepper and other high-tech farming facilities in Canada and parts of the US) trading for less than book that I've thought about, but it just hasn't found its way towards the top of the list. Norfolk Southern (NSC) - not spec - but that's another thing on the list. DE Master Blenders is another name - former Sara Lee coffee/tea brands that were spun-off and has been bought up (they own 15%) by private family fund Joh A Benckiser (who also bought up Caribou Coffee and Peets Coffee last year.)
One company that I really like and liked that was spec-ish was CHR Hansen (CRTSF), a probiotic company based in the Netherlands, but it did well and the us shares are so thinly traded (trades like, once a month... on a good month), I decided to get out because I don't like stocks that illiquid.
One more idea was Monitise (MONIF), a tiny UK mobile money company part owned by Visa. It's like 50 cents. Interesting tiny spec play, but no longer own it. I liked Ingenico (INGIY) in regards to mobile payments, but no longer own that. Still, Ingenico is something that I could maybe see myself revisiting at some point. It's the world's largest point of sale systems company.
I think with Staples, my opinion is that you have Office Max, Office Depot and Staples - you're not going to have all three around in the years to come. I don't know which remains and I haven't looked at the companies in detail, but I do think there's not room for all three.
The thing that I am totally sure will not be around in 5 years is Gamestop (GME.) It's unfortunate, but I just don't see any which way that Gamestop continues in its current form (and no real idea on how it can evolve.)
I don't know how Radio Shack continues, but I think the international business (which I had no idea existed) might have some potential if it goes into developing markets.
I am looking carefully at some of the newer reits that are investing in distressed properties/short sales/single family rentals in the US -- SBY, RESI, TCN.TO, TWO (which owns about 50% of SBY)
I am doing due diligence on these names. Would appreciate your thoughts on them and any other firms/REITs in this space.
Thanks in advance,
BWG
I'm not confident in a housing turnaround in the way that some people are. I don't think you're going to see a rise in prices like you did in the past. I do think that there will be some areas that will move up moderately in the next 3-5 years and I think there are areas that will take 10+ years. It will be a multi-speed move in housing, and some areas will be glacial. I think the one thing that unites my view on housing is that there is housing that is priced below replacement cost. I don't think that value is going to be unlocked right away, but will probably be over the longer term. I don't think things are super and housing is going to bounce back right away, but I suppose I'm looking at it as more of a long-term value.
As for SBY, I think the thing for me is that STWD (which is lead by the former Starwood Hotel CEO) and BX are doing this, and are more established and have strong (generally) management (although I don't think BX is particularly shareholder-friendly.) However, neither is certainly a pure play on this in the manner SBY is.
I haven't decided on what to do and need to look into SBY further, but if I did (really looking at adding more stable/low-risk/dull positions), it wouldn't be more than a small speculative position.
A third of the float is short. It may be a decent speculative holding, or at least a decent short squeeze play, although that may have already happened to some degree. It may just wind up being like Rite Aid and just muddling along (although I remain sorta interested in Rite Aid, as the demand is probably going to be there with the amount of people reaching retirement age.)
Purchased ARLSX too and upped holding in AQRIX.
Here's current fund portfolio, heavy to light:
RNSIX, AQRIX, SFGIX, WBMIX, DODIX, ARIVX, ARLSX, FAAFX, DODBX.
So much for my dream of a four fund portfolio...thanks MFO
Great call Scott!
It's good to be near retirement and bail - probably in 65% bonds and very little stocks if any.
I am still with my plan to trim equities as they advance. I plan to sell equities down by about one percent since they closed above 1525 on the S&P 500 Index yesterday. The previous trim was at 1500. The next planned trim will be S&P 500 Index at 1550 for about another one percent trim. As the equity train continues climbing the mountain my cash ballast continues to grow along the way. At some point this train will reach its peak and have to transverse the down slope.
Good Investing,
Skeeter
The other issue with the office supply retail co's is that I don't think they kept up very well with modern technology. Maybe it's just me, but when going into Office Depot or Office Max stores, they often feel like a PC in a tablet world. On that note, less printers being sold, less PC's being sold, etc.
Personally, I continue to like real, productive assets and that remains my focus. The individual stock part of my investments yields about 4%.
Selling IVA Worldwide I ( IVWIX).
Art
I guess I'm not going to get the chance to add to WPC as soon as I'd hoped.
Adding to WASCX, MFLDX.
Perhaps it is time to start a fresh new one.