FYI: After month/month increases in three of the four prior months, the June Empire Manufacturing report fell and fell hard. While economists were expecting the headline index to drop from 17.8 down to 11.0, the actual decline was much larger sending the headline index down to negative 8.6. With the June decline, the Empire Manufacturing index saw its first negative reading since the 2016 election, the weakest decline relative to expectations since June 2011, and the largest m/m decline in the history of the survey dating back to 2001. One caveat to the decline, however, may be that the temporary trade spat with Mexico may have contributed to the weakness. We'll have to wait until more data for the month comes in, though, for more clarity on that front.
While current conditions plummeted, the expectations component of the report saw a much more modest decline, falling from 30.6 down to 25.7.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/record-decline-in-empire-manufacturing-report
