FYI: What do Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin and Marc Bulger have in common? They’re all quarterbacks, and they were all drafted before Tom Brady, who, with six Super Bowl rings, is arguably the greatest player of all-time. So how is it possible that 198 players were selected before him? Because drafting players is more art than science.
When I hear someone say “it’s more art than science,” what I really hear is “it’s at least as much luck as skill.”
The Wall Street Journal shared an amazing graphic yesterday showing predictions from 50 economists on the direction of interest rates. The average forecast for the end of June was 3.39% on the ten-year. As you can see in the chart below, not one of them came close to where rates currently are. Economists are not dumb people, it’s just that predicting interest rates has nothing to do with intelligence; it’s more art than science.
Regards,
Ted
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/06/12/more-art-than-science/
