FYI: Interest rates tend to change course only once or twice a generation. In 1981, investors could look back on 35 years of generally rising rates. In 2016, a different generation of investors could look back on 35 years of generally falling rates. In bonds, you can profitably spend a whole career not changing your mind.
Humans eat, sleep, and extrapolate. What we think we can foresee is often nothing more than what we have recently seen. “More of the same” is the sensible default prediction in politics, baseball, and interest rates alike. In rates, it actually tends to work.
Regards,
Ted
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