What FIDO has said over the last several months......late cycle cash best for 19. Late cycle is bad time for crashes. Think bear: borrowing costs up.....China close to recession with Germany.....global growth slow.....China not stimulated like 2015......Fed will tighten and that will slow profits. 19 does not look good......2-25-19.
Late cycle China stimulus should kick in late 2019, EM cheap for next 12 months, tech a buy, healthcare no buy, consumer debt at all time lows........ 4-22-19.
Slow growth low interest rates....late cycle.....no recession. Fed pauses, rates will fall, Spain is a buy, U.S. not the place to be now. U.S. and China will have a deal at some point. Buy backs will weaken later this year. Do not own banks. QT pause is important. Also, QE will not help you now in late cycle. China a buy and commodities........ 5-22-19.
Just my notes as you can see. Even they get things wrong......so don't feel bad if you do too.
God bless
the Pudd
p.s.
Just makes you want to drink a longneck and smile......again, all things are subject to change at the speed of Tweetie.......where is that cat at?.......Sylvester......we need you now, boy!!
Comments
Regards,
Ted
Enjoy reading your notes, comments and thoughts.
Bought a little last week based upon my market barometer reflecting that the S&P 500 Index was undervalued with a reading of 158. It closed this week with a reading of 148 indicating that the Index is now at fair value.
A fund that I own that plays on market volatility is CTFAX as it sells bonds and loads equities during a downdraft and then sells equities and loads bonds during the updraft making the spread. In short, it plays the swing. Pretty neat fund ... and, one that you might wish to look at. Plus, it pays it's shareholders two times per year in June and December.
Take care ... and, keep tweeting.
Skeet
Have a good weekend, Derf
Yeah, looks good. I like it very much. I've put it on my short buy list for the next downturn. Looking at it, to me, it looks core along with PONCX and VWINX in the portfolio. How do you rate it? And how long have you owned it? The only thing is new managers that could be a problem.
God bless
the Pudd
When I retired, from full time work about five years ago, I began to get more conserative within my portfolio and I began to trim my equity allocation. CTFAX is a fund that I purchased with some of my equity sell proceeds as I reduced my equity allocation and moved money into hybrid type funds seeking income generation over capital appreciation. Currently, my asset allocation is about 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. Back when I first retired I was running an asset allocation of about 15% cash, 25% income and 60% equity. My current portfolio (20/40/40) generates more income than I presently need leaving me some money, from time to time, that I can feed back into investments. During the past five years, or so, that I have owned CTFAX, it has not had a lot of capital apprecation; but, it has paid out some good money resulting from its investment strategies which play off of stock market swings. For this fund to have good returns there has to be stock market volitality. Otherwise, it performs much like a short term bond fund. Recently, with new managers, it became more aggressive not only with its bond mix; but, with its equity weightings as well. Although, listed by M* as a 15% to 30% equity allocation fund it now holds about 35% equity based upon its matrix weighting chart and current S&P 500 Index reading of 2873 which is down from a recent high equity weighting of 45% at the S&P mark of 2752.
Currently, it is a member of my income sleeve since it is listed as a 15% to 30% equity allocation fund by M*; and, it was this past weeks sleeve leader with a return of 2.12%. Should it get reclassified by M* as a 30% to 50% allocation fund then it will be moved to my hybrid income sleeve.
It's 2019 mid year distribution estimate looks to be less than normal at about 15 cents per share where I had been getting 20 to 30 cents per share at mid year; and, 40 to 55 cents at year end. For me, this computes to about a 4% to 6% annual payout based upon amount invested. As you may recall interest rates have been below normal; and, CTFAX was a fund that I chose to own due to its ability to produce income through its investment trading strategies. Which it has done.
I'll add that this in not the only fund that I bought seeking income generation through varrying trading strategies. Another income generation fund that I own is AZNAX. It pays me better than 8% annually on amount invested. Plus, I have a few other funds that are geared towards income generation besides these two as well.
I believe it worth noting that generally income generating funds, such as these, strive to produce a high level of income over growing their principal.
Thanks again for your question(s).
The backward look period is limited by PONCX inception.
Of consequence during this period, WHEN some of the market melt of 2008 had already begun is the effect of strong performance of many bond sectors related to some of these funds.
I've added FBALX and SPY for other reference holdings.
April, 2007 through June 7, 2019 total returns
Yeah, catch, great chart....thanks. You can see CTFAX fade from the others the last two (2) years.....why? I wonder. We had very little volatility. Maybe now they have new managers.....going to get more aggressive, maybe. I'm looking for a third fund in this core part of the portfolio.....something I'm not going to sell.
God bless
the Pudd
At this house, we will likely start to fade the meddling of the past 40 years and travel towards a fund as FBALX. Too hot towards the equity for old timers, for some perhaps; but everything won't be in the fund.
Option 2 would be a 25% each to the likes of FSMEX, a tech. fund, a sleepy bond fund ( BAGIX ?) and FBALX.
I feel there are more than enough proven funds to weather the storms. The major question for most, is whether the individual/couple can weather the market storms.
Have a good remainder.
Catch
Yes, I want to fade some of the more volatile funds I have and go into a quieter space. I would like to add a bond fund but where rates are now, they look like a poor choice. At least for now......and that could change. I do own FSMEX as you do. Will add on weakness.....with elections coming should be a given. I have thought about a balance fund or a target date fund. I have only one overseas fund: FMIJX. I have pulled back because of the Blonde One should he get 4 more years. I see only trouble in the sandbox. Right now I'm cash rich due to selling I was doing earlier. Just took some profits with all this uncertainty. Also I almost forgot I also own FHCKX...... silly me. My 4 largest holdings are: VWINX, FXIAX, FSPHX, PONCX. If I may ask......what are yours? And why? I also agree that it's not so much what you own when the storm hits but what you do to weather it.
God bless
the Pudd
We've been transitioning some money since early 2018. The below holdings have been in place for several years and have had adds since early 2018. Note: all of this money is in tax sheltered accounts, so we are not concerned with tax ramifications of any sells.
We currently do not have any direct foreign holdings; with any foreign exposure coming from the holdings within the equity positions of the funds.
The percentages of the current total holdings are below:
--- BAGIX at 33.5%
--- CASH at 32.1% @ 2.1% 7 day yield
--- EQUITY at 34.4%
equity mix consists of:
--- FHLC (Fid. health etf) and FSMEX at 60% of equity
--- FTEC (Fid. tech. etf) at 40% of equity
We remain inclined towards growth, and obviously within the tech. and health areas.
As much as we would like to continue the meddling adventure, as mentioned previous; that path needs to change after 40 years. We'll have to grin and bear it when we "think" we've sensed a positive investment event and not take any action.
Keep it simple, we'll try. OLD HABITS are hard to break.
So, the low key buy and hold meddling may look like this:
--- 50% in FBALX, which will provide equity and bond exposure
--- 25% in dedicated tech. and health
--- 25% in a bond fund
***remain U.S. centered with no plans to chase international equity or bonds. Been there, done that. And to retain modest positive gains against future inflation and eventual taxation on withdraws.
ADD: the above is a kinda modified VWINX , eh?
I'll stake our own knowledge and experience against the pros at Fido Wealth Management or a ROBO adviser to find who is the winner after 10 years, on a risk adjusted basis. Yes, this is confidence; not arrogance.
Have a good remainder.
Catch
It looks good. FBLAX and a bond fund with the fun group, health and tech........yeah, VWINX will only get larger as the gun slinger fades....lol. And the rocking chair gets some use.
God bless
the Pudd