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The Times ran a piece partly walking back their assertion, and an ex-colleague of mine (Dan Kennedy) wrote a piece about that, and of course the "president" claimed as much all along, but then the NYT and WaPo have both reported later that actually it was to first order as originally reported: the important bulk of the dealmaking had preceded the latest blowhard blusters.
The Trump Put is solid. The media gobbles up his tweets and spits out his lies in news headlines. Its so easy, and we never really call anybody out on this. Its the new normal.
Expect more fake tweets to make sure the markets stay buoyant. You might even say that these tweets are "priced in" at this point.
- “My issue is related to ... RISK TOLERANCE ... Investing is so emotional for many of us. Its hard to sit by and watch your Account Balance go down the tubes.”
- “I've (incorrectly) gone to cash more often than I want to admit over the years. Though I am shy of my 50s, I am personally still all about preservation of capital.”
- “Combine this president, with his "Tariff policies", alongside a very, very long bull market...... and I am once again (cautious).” I am mostly in CASH. “
Hi @JoeD, You raise a lot of interesting points. Nothing much I can say, but some vague thoughts might help ...
Re risk tolerance - Everybody’s different based on their own life experiences and personality. You remind me of one time in the ‘80s when I had secured a good paying job and wished to do something nice for my aging parents. Knowing they weren’t very astute in money matters, I opened an account in their name in a reputable money market fund that was yielding something like a crazy 15-20% in those days. Gifted them $1,000 which was the minimum to open an account. I hoped they would let it grow into their retirement years, perhaps add to it, and that it might benefit them years later. While grateful, they were suspicious of this new-fangled type of account in a big city somewhere and almost immediately cashed-out and moved the money to their passbook account at a local bank yielding something like 3%. So for them (both products of the Depression), even a money market fund was way beyond their risk tolerance!
Going to cash can be risky from an investment standpoint. Sure, if you will need the money within a few years, it’s a smart move. But if you are doing it with the intent of reinvesting later on, it’s tough to pull-off. I’d rather invest in something like TRRIX (a lame 40/60 fund) if I was really worried about the markets. If your guess is right and the market tanks you will lose something - maybe 20% of your money. But over the very long-term the fund should allow you to sleep better and keep you at least ahead of inflation. FWIW - My gut tells me equities are overpriced. But I’m not going to bet the ranch on that gut feeling.
Missing is reference to the purpose for which you are investing. I’d assume it’s for retirement in another 10-15 years. With retirement that near, I’d be reluctant to go overboard with aggressive equity funds myself. However, I wouldn’t exclude equities completely. I started moving out of the really aggressive stuff at about age 50 (but retired in my early 50s). Again, there are many great conservative funds that will keep you out of deep trouble during a big sell off and still help you accumulate more for retirement than cash would. Furthermore; most of us dollar cost average into our equity positions during our working years. I’d think that during those years the temptation (or need) to “sell all” and move to cash would be lessened.
re: “Bizarro” politics. I may share your foreboding. But I think we do a disservice to @Junkster who devoted considerable time and thought into creating a pretty valuable thread if we move it into the political arena. So I won’t go there and hope others don’t. What I tell myself every day is that regardless of who is President or what type of government we become, great companies like Amazon, Boeing, Apple, Microsoft aren’t going to go away - at least any time soon. So we may be appalled by some of the politics taking place, but that shouldn’t deter us from investing in great capitalist companies and sharing in the wealth they create.
There’s no right answer to any of this. And nothing I said should be construed as investment advice.
@hank- yessir, very well done, especially for one of the lower tier members. Quite a contrast between your comprehensive, well organized, thoughtful presentation and the stuff from that other guy who believes that just links (the more the better) and some unattributed plagiarized comments are the real deal.
Comments
Expect more fake tweets to make sure the markets stay buoyant. You might even say that these tweets are "priced in" at this point.
Re risk tolerance - Everybody’s different based on their own life experiences and personality. You remind me of one time in the ‘80s when I had secured a good paying job and wished to do something nice for my aging parents. Knowing they weren’t very astute in money matters, I opened an account in their name in a reputable money market fund that was yielding something like a crazy 15-20% in those days. Gifted them $1,000 which was the minimum to open an account. I hoped they would let it grow into their retirement years, perhaps add to it, and that it might benefit them years later. While grateful, they were suspicious of this new-fangled type of account in a big city somewhere and almost immediately cashed-out and moved the money to their passbook account at a local bank yielding something like 3%. So for them (both products of the Depression), even a money market fund was way beyond their risk tolerance!
Going to cash can be risky from an investment standpoint. Sure, if you will need the money within a few years, it’s a smart move. But if you are doing it with the intent of reinvesting later on, it’s tough to pull-off. I’d rather invest in something like TRRIX (a lame 40/60 fund) if I was really worried about the markets. If your guess is right and the market tanks you will lose something - maybe 20% of your money. But over the very long-term the fund should allow you to sleep better and keep you at least ahead of inflation. FWIW - My gut tells me equities are overpriced. But I’m not going to bet the ranch on that gut feeling.
Missing is reference to the purpose for which you are investing. I’d assume it’s for retirement in another 10-15 years. With retirement that near, I’d be reluctant to go overboard with aggressive equity funds myself. However, I wouldn’t exclude equities completely. I started moving out of the really aggressive stuff at about age 50 (but retired in my early 50s). Again, there are many great conservative funds that will keep you out of deep trouble during a big sell off and still help you accumulate more for retirement than cash would. Furthermore; most of us dollar cost average into our equity positions during our working years. I’d think that during those years the temptation (or need) to “sell all” and move to cash would be lessened.
re: “Bizarro” politics. I may share your foreboding. But I think we do a disservice to @Junkster who devoted considerable time and thought into creating a pretty valuable thread if we move it into the political arena. So I won’t go there and hope others don’t. What I tell myself every day is that regardless of who is President or what type of government we become, great companies like Amazon, Boeing, Apple, Microsoft aren’t going to go away - at least any time soon. So we may be appalled by some of the politics taking place, but that shouldn’t deter us from investing in great capitalist companies and sharing in the wealth they create.
There’s no right answer to any of this. And nothing I said should be construed as investment advice.
Regards
investment adviceinsightful comments. Good stuff.Ben Franklin - “A Plowman on his Legs is higher than a Gentleman on his Knees.”