Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
In theory I absolutely agree, although I tend to be a bit concerned by Goldman's extraordinary record of doing the opposite of what they advise. However, even if this is a short-term "do as we say not as we do", I think what the article discusses is where things are headed in the mid-to-long term and people do need to prepare for things to head in that direction.
Personally, as I noted in another thread, as much as I dislike aspects of Buffett, I have started to go further towards the mentality of "Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years." I'm maybe not to the ten year mentality yet, but five? Yeah.
I just think there's some really interesting companies around the world, as well. Everyone is going to be different - different outlook, different risk tolerance, etc - but I continue to find interesting long-term stories and/or values that I've taken a long-term view on, as well as continuing to hold a selection of broad funds.
Reply to @scott: Hi Scott: Thanks for the input. Agree that Goldman ain't the squeakiest clean source on this. But, the warnings seem to be coming fast & furious from many quarters. I do think some of it undue hysteria and don't mean to add to that. However, I also believe where there's smoke there's probably fire. And I suspect stocks will outperform in years ahead. The problem is: When bond's tumble they're likely to take equities down with them - for awhile anyway. A real conundrum. What's a conservative investor like myself & many here to do? Am considering pulling an extra % or two out of equities - just to have it to put back in after the inevitable pile up coming down the road. Regards
I feel that equities are going to be the place to be … and, I have for the past three years or so. About three years ago I started trimming bond funds back within my portfolio and favoring equities. Some bonds will fair better than others when the ebb begins to flow form bond funds. This is a prim reason I have moved money to shorter duration bond funds and those with a flexible mandate that can roam the fixed income universe looking for opportunity … and, hopefully be able to transverse the slope. In addition, I have move money into hybrid type funds that trend to adjust their allocation between bonds, stock, cash and other assets based upon the manager’s view of the investment landscape. This will help … but, I feel once the cookie starts to crumble what one will wind up with will be crumbs sticking only with bonds.
Reply to @hank: "What's a conservative investor like myself & many here to do?"
Personally, I'm looking at a BMY or JNJ or the relatively more boring side of health care, which offer appealing yields. One of my long-term views has really been that people will start changing how they eat - you look at Novo Nordisk (which is largely diabetes-focused) and that has gone from like $4 in 1995 to $165 a share.. At some point (NVO at a thousand a share, perhaps?) one would think that society gets to the point where enough people know someone with health issues (whether diabetes or other issues) due to obesity that people realize they have to change - but maybe not.
I mean, people smoke and they know that's bad for them. People will probably continue to eat at McDonalds, even though they know that it's lousy for them. As unfortunate as it is, I'm starting to think health care (especially some focuses) is going to continue to be a successful theme for a while to come. And, in the meantime, if you can earn a 3.4% yield in JNJ or a 4+% yield in some of the other names....
Comments
Personally, as I noted in another thread, as much as I dislike aspects of Buffett, I have started to go further towards the mentality of "Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years." I'm maybe not to the ten year mentality yet, but five? Yeah.
I just think there's some really interesting companies around the world, as well. Everyone is going to be different - different outlook, different risk tolerance, etc - but I continue to find interesting long-term stories and/or values that I've taken a long-term view on, as well as continuing to hold a selection of broad funds.
I feel that equities are going to be the place to be … and, I have for the past three years or so. About three years ago I started trimming bond funds back within my portfolio and favoring equities. Some bonds will fair better than others when the ebb begins to flow form bond funds. This is a prim reason I have moved money to shorter duration bond funds and those with a flexible mandate that can roam the fixed income universe looking for opportunity … and, hopefully be able to transverse the slope. In addition, I have move money into hybrid type funds that trend to adjust their allocation between bonds, stock, cash and other assets based upon the manager’s view of the investment landscape. This will help … but, I feel once the cookie starts to crumble what one will wind up with will be crumbs sticking only with bonds.
Good Investing,
Skeeter
Personally, I'm looking at a BMY or JNJ or the relatively more boring side of health care, which offer appealing yields. One of my long-term views has really been that people will start changing how they eat - you look at Novo Nordisk (which is largely diabetes-focused) and that has gone from like $4 in 1995 to $165 a share.. At some point (NVO at a thousand a share, perhaps?) one would think that society gets to the point where enough people know someone with health issues (whether diabetes or other issues) due to obesity that people realize they have to change - but maybe not.
I mean, people smoke and they know that's bad for them. People will probably continue to eat at McDonalds, even though they know that it's lousy for them. As unfortunate as it is, I'm starting to think health care (especially some focuses) is going to continue to be a successful theme for a while to come. And, in the meantime, if you can earn a 3.4% yield in JNJ or a 4+% yield in some of the other names....
On a lighter note regarding McD's.