Market Gurus

MJG

Hi Guys,

I just returned home from a lecture that was purportedly given by an equity investment expert. He made some interesting and valid market observations, but also claimed an investment selection accuracy that I believe compromised his credibility. He claimed and showed a few charts that documented a positive selection accuracy in excess of 80%. If that is an accurate scorecard, he is exceptional and has powers that exceed a host of famous market experts.

Here is a Link that summarizes the performance of a huge number of famous gurus:

https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/

Even the best of these gurus failed to have a 70% accuracy score. The average success ratio for this elite group failed to reach a 50% score. Investing is a challenging task. Success over a reasonably large number of decisions escapes the experts and likely escapes most of us. We do need to be somewhat lucky. Good luck to all of us. We need it.

Best Regards

Junkster

Curious since you rant and rave against anyone being capable of beating the market why you still feel compelled to attend such lectures. Somewhere deep down you must still be seeking the Holy Grail. These guys prey on suckers and lemmings and didn’t realize you were such. Anyone can make outrageous claims but few can ever back them up by a long term real money track record. I may have to dust off and post my Crooks, Con Men, Charlatans, and Pretenders expose. Even you would be amazed at how adroitly the Dream Merchants reel in the Kool Aid drinkers.

Old_Joe

These guys prey on suckers and lemmings. Anyone can make outrageous claims but few can ever back them up by a long term real track record.

Please, let's leave Trump out of this!

Old_Skeet

Hi @MJG:

Interesting article; and, thanks for posting. It is all these perspectives that these people share that make the market. While, some are going long others may be shorting, while others might be seeking value over growth ... and, still others might be seeking yield, etc.

That's why I feel it important that each investor know themselves and establish their own investment focus. For me, I am a long term investors that trades around the edges ... and, I make comment on my thinking. Plus, I enjoy reading the thoughts of others. After all, reading the thoughts of others, at times, has confirmed some of my own thinking.

This leads the way for Modern Portfolio Theory.

Wishing all ... "Good Investing."

Old_Skeet

Derf

@MJG: How long of a period of time are we looking at ?
Derf

MJG

Hi Derf,

The forecasters timeframe is not an easy question with a single provided answer. Timeframes vary greatly and are often not specified. However, as a general observation, the forecaster’s timeframes are one year and under.

One indication of timeframe is the number of projections that a forecaster makes. The larger number of forecasts likely correlates with a shorter time projection. While a correlation coefficient probably exists, I suppose it is less than a perfect One.

Research suggests that most experts have little insights to offer individual investors/traders. Locating superior advisers is no easier than identifying outperforming investments.

Not providing a specified time period for the forecast is cheating at least a little, so I would totality reject the forecast. Given enough time almost all forecasts have a likelihood to be fulfilled. That’s my forecast for whatever that is worth (granted not much value).

Best Wishes