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The Breakfast Briefing: Global Stocks Pause As Bond Yields Continue To Fall

FYI: Global stocks wavered Thursday as investors weighed whether recent concerns about global growth marked a blip in market sentiment or a permanent turn away from the buoyancy that defined the beginning of 2019.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.4% in morning trading. Asian stocks were mostly lower with the Shanghai Stock Exchange down 0.9% and Japan’s Nikkei down 1.6%.

U.S. futures pointed to opening rises of 0.1% for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.

Negative sentiment has weighed on equities this week and pushed bond yields lower across the globe as investors flock to haven assets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury on Thursday fell to 2.358%, from 2.374% on Wednesday. Yields move inversely to prices.

In recent sessions investors have been faced with a series of signals that global growth could be set to slow, with the U.S. yield curve inverting just as the yield on 10-year German government bonds turned negative, both events which are considered harbingers of a global downturn.

Still, U.S. central bank officials spoke out Wednesday, suggesting it is still too soon to begin cutting rates, which is what markets are forecasting when the yield curve inverts.

Nevertheless, many investors say the recent market jitters are unjustified and expect the rally at the beginning of 2019 to continue apace.

The WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, was up 0.1% on Thursday.

In the U.K., investors digested an announcement by Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday that she would resign if the agreement she has negotiated with Brussels is approved by Parliament. The announcement came just as lawmakers failed to find a majority on any given path for Brexit, adding to political uncertainty and beginning a tussle for the nation’s leadership.

The British pound was down 0.3% against the U.S. dollar and the euro on Thursday. The FTSE 100 index, which is dominated by large international businesses, gained 0.6% while the FTSE 250 gained 0.4%.

Emerging-market currencies have also been roiled this week, with the Turkish lira down 3.9% against the U.S. dollar Thursday, the South African rand down 0.4% and the Argentine peso flat following a big drop earlier in the week.

Turkey’s markets have been in flux ahead of local elections that test the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has warned he would punish speculators at a time when inflation and unemployment weigh on investor sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Argentine peso plumbed new lows in recent sessions as spiraling inflation worried markets.
Regards,
Ted

WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-pause-as-bond-yields-continue-to-fall-11553763647

Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-27/treasuries-rally-builds-asia-stocks-set-to-slip-markets-wrap

IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-lululemon-stock-lululemon-earnings-lyft-ipo-price-range-raised/

CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/stock-market-growth-fears-remain-in-focus-gdp-and-jobless-numbers.html

U.K.:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/ftse-100-gains-on-sterling-slide-brexit-deadlock-intact-idUKKCN1R90TT

Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/europe-stocks/european-shares-edge-higher-on-trade-optimism-but-brexit-impasse-weighs-idUSL3N21F1J2

Asia:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nikkei-falls-but-other-asian-markets-make-up-early-losses-2019-03-27/print

Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/us-bonds-treasury-yields-tick-lower-as-investors-await-data-auctions.html

Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/forex-market-dovish-central-banks-us-treasury-yields-in-focus.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/oil-market-us-crude-inventories-opec-supply-cuts-in-focus.htmlOil:

Gold:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/gold-market-us-treasury-yield-brexit-vote-in-focus.html

Current Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

Comments

  • edited March 2019
    Again, @Ted, thanks for these daily market briefings. I find good value in both the morning and afternoon market recaps. This saves me a great deal of time and engery from having to scan the net for the information you post in a one stop venue.

    And, don't look for me to comment about this post daily; but, know I appreciate it very much.

    Skeet
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