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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Experts vs. Evidence

Hi Guys,

In the investment world we are constantly bombarded by expert opinion. How good or bad are those opinions? Much data exists in this arena. Here is a Link that tests the prediction accuracy of a rather large number of market experts and their prediction scorecards:

I’m not especially impressed. The highest accuracy was only about 70% and the average accuracy was under 50%. I suspect some MFO contributors could do just as well. Unfortunately, I’m not in the superior group. Good luck investing to all of us. I need that luck factor.

Best Regards


  • Hope if i can match index on yrly basis I would be happy
  • @MJG: My "expert opinion" is that most of those other "expert opinions" are total BS. Agree completely re "luck factor".
  • edited March 2019
    Good grief! Give this audience some credit. It’s fine to read and discuss so-called expert opinions - be it allocation, investments, or market direction. I find it enjoyable personally. But to think that anyone who’s been investing for a long time would radically change their approach based on reading some expert article is nuts. If you’re that malleable you probably shouldn’t be investing at all.
  • @hank- I certainly hope that you're not questioning the need for 37 lbs per day of links to a multitude of "expert articles".:)
  • MJG
    edited March 2019
    Hi Hank,

    Over decades investor annual returns performance is not very impressive. The accumulated data demonstrates that the average investor earns slightly more than half the relevant Index returns. See my reference:

    So, in hindsight, perhaps my critique of experts was overdone? No!!! The experts claim to fame is that they have special insights. In general, the accumulated data do not support that assertion. Being right about half the time is no great claim to fame. Too, too bad. I sure could use special insights into the market’s future performance and direction. In my case, historical data will suffice lacking any talents in that discipline.

    Thank you for contributing here. Over the many years some of the comments, observations, and references offered by MFOers have influenced my investment strategy and tactics. I do learn, but mostly very slowly and sometimes incorrectly. Investing is a tough business, and it does change over time.

    Best Wishes

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