FYI: Every trader’s secret wish is to be psychic. If we could only know in advance whether the market was going to go up or down.
Well, good luck trying to predict next year’s return—or even just tomorrow’s. But surprisingly, there are several recognized methods for projecting the S&P 500’s SPX, -0.21% return in the next 7 to 15 years, and they’re pretty good.
Decade-length forecasts won’t help any day traders make big profits this week. But longer-term investors can benefit a lot from these forward-looking estimates. Whatever goal you may be saving money for—a kid’s college tuition or a financial-freedom day that may be 10 years in the future—you want the answer to two questions:
• Are we entering a “go-go decade,” such as 2009–2018, when most stocks grow up, up, up?
• Or is this the beginning of a “bummer decade,” such as 2000–2009, when stock markets around the world crashed twice, ending not far from where they started?
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-low-will-the-sp-500-go-buffett-and-shiller-know-2019-01-23/print
