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How to Prepare Your Portfolio for a Recession
Feb. 15, 2019
Signs of a possible slowing global economy and the potential impact that it could have in the U.S. has some investors concerned about the next recession.
The U.S. economy hasn’t been in a recession since the last one ended in 2009. While most economists don’t see that happening in the near future, “it will happen sooner or later,” says Richard Mathes, president of The Mathes Company in New York.
Now might be the time for investors to review how resilient their portfolio would be to a U.S. recession and the steps they should take. For investors who might want to be more defensive with their holdings, here are seven investments to consider.
1. Cash. Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Minneapolis-based The Leuthold Group, says while investors shouldn’t load up heavily in cash, increasing their cash holdings to slightly above their normal allocations in a recession can be a smart idea.
Recessions can generate a lot of worry, so having a strategic amount cash on hand gives investors the ability to buy favored stocks quickly that have fallen sharply in price. “You want to take advantage of other people’s fears,” he says.
2. U.S. Treasury bonds. Credit markets can be riskier in a recession, so Paulsen recommends investors stick with the high-quality bonds, such as U.S. Treasury bonds. Historically, Treasury bonds have been the best-performing asset in recessionary environments because investors see these assets as a safe haven, he says. Bonds will also give greater returns than all-cash positions, he says.
Look to extend duration, too, which means buying longer dated bonds. Many bond benchmarks have a duration around five to six years. For that reason, Paulsen says to look to buy bonds that have a longer maturity window during negative economic environments. – Debbie Carlson
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