FYI: Remember that the best hitter in baseball this year will fail 65 percent of the time.
— George Will
Mookie Betts hit .346 in 2018, failing 65.4% of the time. Mr. Betts reached base more often than his batting average indicates due to walks. His on base percentage (OBP), was .438, decreasing his failure rate to about 56%. Stocks, in the long run, have a similar failure rate.
Recent research from Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State¹ shows that from 1926 to 2016 just 42.6% of stocks provided lifetime returns that beat one month treasury bills. Fifty seven percent of stocks destroyed value over that ninety year span. If such a low percentage of stocks outstripped the return of a t-bill, how is it that stocks provided an 8.5% return over t-bills from 1926 to 2015? Back to baseball.
Regards,
Ted
https://globalinvestmentstrategy.wordpress.com/2019/01/28/baseball-and-stocks-games-of-failure/
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