Coffee means Bloomberg. Gold this morning has shot up to highest level in about a year. $1310 at 11 AM. Many including
@MikeM here have been positive for a while. I have a small “sit tight” allocation. It’s part of my 4-fund
real assets corner. Been burned too many times to throw a massive wad at the stuff. (But like it.)
Oil did a “180” this morning. After skidding 3-4% yesterday it’s up 2- 3% today. Some of that might relate to Russia’s increasingly aggressive words regarding backing their man in the Venezuela’s contested election. (Deleted political note).
Looks like
@Junkster made the right call on junk about a month ago (maybe more). The talking heads on Bloomberg are all over it this morning hyping its recent rebound. No junk here except indirectly. But do have some EM bonds which have done well this year.
A guy from Janus Henderson this morning remarked in an interview that the Fed is finished raising rates “for good.” What the **** is that supposed to mean? Than he said he was going longer on duration in his fund - which makes no sense to me either. Longer duration bonds react more to economic fundamentals than to Fed rates. Wonder if this is a “talk your book” (pump and dump) strategy? Seems to me Gross used to do a lot of that.
Nat gas can’t get out of its own way. After bouncing 12-15% to over $3.50 a couple weeks ago, it’s below $3.00 again today. 5-10% daily swings seem common for the stuff.
Being widely diversified now, the equity indexes mean a lot less. Currencies, metals, energy, bonds, etc. are big determiners for my profit / loss. Curiously, ultra short TRBUX gained a penny yesterday back to $5.02 after sitting at $5.01 for several months. Somebody said “Hitch your wagon to a star.” But IMHO, equities no longer represent as bright a star they did 8-10 years ago.
Comments
LOL - Sorry @MikeM. I realize that. Didn’t mean to suggest otherwise. I have been tempted to throw more at it but have resisted. All I meant to say. But thanks for the bump.
BTW - I think your instincts with respect to gold have been very good.
I'm on about my third momentum advance in silver particularly the junior miners. Gold has broken through 1300 and silver is close to 16. If it also breaks, there could be some additional momentum. The main reason I like the juniors is that the leverage is simply enormous. During the Hunt rally gold tripled to $850 but silver went up tenfold to $50. Note also that historically, this 17/1 ratio has been the relationship. When the Big Bonanza topped out in '11, gold was ~1880 and silver ~45 which is 42/1. Currently the G/S ratio is 82/1. To me, this means that IFF they are to go on a run, silver has a greater potential
Where this market goes batshit crazy, however, is with the miners. You can play juniors in gold or silver. For the above reason and all, I like the junior silver miners. If any of y'all want to do some serious playing around check out some of the penny stocks at
http://www.kitcosilver.com/equities.html
Note that you can also play SIL or SILJ.
Here some commentary from kitco which IS in the business.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-01-30/Gold-Silver-Prices-Hit-Multi-Month-Highs-As-Easier-Fed-Anticipated.html
And also note that this is all speculative and completely unrelated to my continuing to tout gold and silver as an investment that should anchor every wealth portfolio. This can be anywhere from 3 - 10% depending upon your outlook and taste. More than that is speculation, which is fine so long as you take it for what it is.
The other place where there seems to be some momentum is in the pot arena. Fine stuff that pot. For someone who first smoked on R&R in Bangkok in 1969, it's about bloody time.
That said, CGC, CRON, TLRY and of course MJ.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono