Your Choices for future Investment "Themes"?

scott

In an attempt to get some discussion going, I thought I'd ask what people's ideas were for upcoming "themes" and how they are investing in them (whether it be funds, stocks, etfs, etc). This could be anything from emerging markets to something as specific as pet food or gardening. I thought it would be interesting if everyone could share one or two. For me, a smaller one is the science of food (healthy eating; how to boost flavor w/o using as much salt, etc), which I'm using Givaudan (GVDNY) for.

AndyJ

Global energy efficiency and related: Srigx, Gabelli Green, a tee-tee-tiny position I plan to beef up on dips/corrections. I tried individual stocks for a while on this theme, but gave up on ever knowing enough to be able to pick a small number with a reasonable chance of success, so went with the best, despite a godawful E.R.

Good local food: a 6% 5-year loan to the extremely popular local food co-op for store expansion.

Wage growth in EMs, especially Asia: consumer stocks, firms specializing in automation (higher wages = need for more automation of processes to maintain profits): Matthews, what else?

Cheers,
AJ

scott

Great ideas and the co-op loan is a really, really neat investment, I think.

MaxBialystock

6% for 5 years, outstanding...... Themes... Hmmmmm... EM Bonds these days, both gov't and corporate. When will financials break out and start climbing? My RYDVX is heavy with them. And I wonder how long it will be before Latin America begins to outperform again. I also am interested in emerging Europe, such as Serbia, Croatia.

AndyJ

Yeah, the interest on the loan to the co-op will almost cover what we spend there! We buy ~ 99% of the food we prepare at home there, and maybe 75% of the $ we spend eating out goes there too, to the deli. Plus,it's the center of our social circle. The operative phrase is "living a co-op to mouth existence."

scott

In terms of Latin America, I continue to consider Coca-Cola FEMSA and Arcos Dorados (the largest McDonalds operator in Latin America) as quieter (by comparison, still certainly volatile) single name ways (and may be quieter than some Latin American funds, although you'd be taking on single company risk) to play Latin America, although I have not invested in either.

scott

Wow. Very cool - I'll have to look into this with local co-ops. Thanks.

hank

My approach is pretty much stick-in-the-mud. Try to avoid acting on forecasts feeling those bets are too risky. Have consistently been overweight commodities and international/em bonds compared to my benchmark TRRIX. Like most on the board expect the dollar to continue weakening, but probably not in a predictable straight line.

Like HSGFX better than in a long time. Dr. Hussman professed months back to be making some changes in methodology. Appears to be making a difference. Over 3 months the fund is up 4.2%. Much better than in a long time. Goes through cycles in how it behaves depending on Hussmans views, so your taking more manager risk than with most funds. Lately been jumping on market down days and then breaking even on the up days. Glad to own a little, about 5%, as a hedge against market volatility but do not intend to increase the amount.

Added remarks: Not for me at 65 and comfortably retired. But, if younger with more to invest I'd buy some distressed real estate, preferably a Florida condo that could be rented when not there expecting real estate prices to recover. Would take a 30 year fixed mortgage at around 5% believing rates will be much higher in 5 or 10 years. A corollary is would avoid owning long term bonds expecting them to plummet in value at some point in the next several years as inflation returns. Agnostic on gold. Its had a great run. Best time to buy was 10 years ago. Ah, aint 20/20 hindsight great?










s

[Deleted User]

Short. This may be a depressing 'theme', but, after carefully re-allocating into a bunch of very nice long instruments which all started to tank at once, I am inclined to think one must not fight the trend, which is unfortunately a shrinking economy and a decline in asset values for now. Add to that a suspicion that Bernanke and friends are pushing investors out of commodities and stocks and into dollars and bonds. I don't agree with them, but I won't have my portfolio trashed by trying to swim against their machinations.

I would much prefer picking sectors with bright prospects, but for now there are economic forces out there beyond our control. If Goldman survived by shorting the last downdraft, they are likely going to do it again, and we may as well take the hint.

scott

I'm rather negative to begin with so the idea of shorting is something I'm open to, but I have a hard time imagining a world where we've spent trillions of dollars to prop up the financial system, only to have the stimulus stop and then let the cards fall where they may (and the result doesn't end well.)

If we were to actually have a significant downturn in the market again and then QE3 appears, at that point I'd be surprised if it doesn't become quite clear that QE3 has become a required structural feature to keep things moving. If the cards fall where they may and things start really rolling to the short side, then how does the government explain flushing trillions of dollars and ending up in more or less the same place where we started?

Bud

For a longer term outlook - energy and health care. I've been in invested in Invesco Energy(FSTEX) but have taken profits through the years and force myself to add to it during weaknesses. In the same theme I also have 2 individual stocks for natural gas play - CLNE and LNG. I also have a number of individual "health/Medical" stocks bought during the 2008-09 stock sale.
I also was invested in Ag ETF (MOO) but sold way too soon but when it goes on sale again, I would be a buyer.
I'm looking at stuff we need, not necessarily what we would want to have.

scott

So much depends on the situation with energy in this country and energy policy, but I think CLNE, with its nat gas stations, is a neat, rather unique company (with a great front man in T Boone Pickens) that could do really well if everything lined up for it - the only thing is it's just tough to know how long that will be.

johnN

good morning scott
great question...very thoughtful
I am betting on energy, commodities, water, food for long term
I think EM and US equities could have ways to go but it's difficult to tell what will happen
I probably may buy more
DBA &/or MOO - agriculture ETF
PHO - water
but probably more diverse funds or ETFs
I don't know about nlr nuclear energy though.

oil reits in canada or maybe farmlands in US could be big long term [5-10 yrs] due to massive energy demands

These are very risky and volatile imho
we maybe laughin' our ways to the bank 15s-20s yrs from now
otherwise we may have another blackswan events and we'll both be crying

Pangolin

I still like agriculture (own MOO and DBA).

I like multifamily housing (own stocks AVB and BRE, probably will buy some of the ETF REZ as well).

BobC

In terms of global themes, we do not see much change. Infrastructure, commodities (especially agriculture and energy), and technology. We like domestic companies with a lot of EM exposure. We like places like Canada, Brazil, Australia, Indonesia, Russia for natural resources but are careful about allocating dollars specifically except for Canada. EM currencies, as well as those from Canada, interest us, so EM bonds in local currencies have some attraction.